Land-cover impacts on streamflow: a change-detection modelling approach that incorporates parameter uncertainty

Seibert, Jan; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

doi:10.1080/02626661003683264

Cited by 103 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(61 reference statements)

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“…These effects were assessed by applying the widely used conceptual hydrological model, HBVlight, which accounted for the uncertainty in the parameterization of different land-use classes (Seibert and McDonnell 2010). Even though physical data measured in the field cannot be used to directly parameterize a conceptual model, it could be shown that field data provide useful a priori constraints on the randomly sampled (MC) parameter distributions (Table 2).…”

Section: Conceptual Rainfall-runoff Modelling In the Tropics And Relamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since consistent long-term data records were absent from the study catchment, precluding the application of change-detection approaches similar to those of Seibert and McDonnell (2010), we developed landuse scenarios, incorporating PES scheme results, in an attempt to analyse the potential effects on streamflow dynamics. These were applied to the multi-criteria calibrated baseline simulation for the study period 1982-1990, using the same climatic drivers and parameterization and, thus, excluding any climate variability and additional parameter uncertainty from the analysis (Bruijnzeel 2004).…”

Section: Potential Effects Of Land-use Change and Pes Schemes On Strementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Schellekens (2006) successfully adapted a distributed, physically-based hydrological model to a small catchment in Costa Rica, but despite the site specific value at particular scales, such modelling approaches are not easily transferred to simulate the hydrology of other catchments with limited data. Recently, Seibert and McDonnell (2010) and Zégre et al (2010) successfully used a relatively simple conceptual model to detect hydrological changes for pre-and post-deforestation periods in the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest and the Hinkle Creek Paired Watershed Study in Oregon, USA, respectively. Similarly, conceptual modelling has the potential to be used in tropical catchments with shorter data records, applying different PES scenarios rather than a change-detection approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Birkel

Soulsby

Tetzlaff

2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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A modelling experiment is used to examine different land-use scenarios ranging from extreme deforestation (31% forest cover) to pristine (95% forest cover) conditions and related Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes to assess whether a change in streamflow dynamics, discharge extremes and mean annual water balance of a 73.4-km 2 tropical headwater catchment in Costa Rica could be detected. A semi-distributed, conceptual rainfall-runoff model was adapted to conceptualize the empirically-based, dominant hydrological processes of the study area and was multi-criteria calibrated using different objective functions and empirical constraints on model simulations in a Monte Carlo framework to account for parameter uncertainty. The results suggest that land-use change had relatively little effect on the overall mean annual water yield (<3%). However, streamflow dynamics proved to be sensitive in terms of frequency, timing and magnitude of discharge extremes. For low flows and peak discharges of return periods greater than one year, land use had a minor influence on the runoff response. Below these thresholds (<1-year return period), forest cover potentially decreased runoff peaks and low flows by as much as 10%, and non-forest cover increased runoff peaks and low flows by up to 15%. The study demonstrated the potential for using hydrological modelling to help identify the impact of protection and reforestation efforts on ecosystem services.Key words ecosystem services; PES; hydrological modelling; tropics; Costa Rica; land-use change Modélisation des effets du changement de couvert végétal sur la dynamique des débits d'un bassin versant amont en forêt tropicale humide Résumé Cet article utilise une expérience de modélisation pour examiner différents scénarios d'occupation des sols allant de la déforestation extrême (couverture forestière à 31%) aux conditions d'origine (couverture forestière à 95%), et les schémas associés de Paiement pour les Services Ecosystémiques (PSE) afin de déterminer si un changement de dynamique de l'écoulement fluvial, des extrêmes de débit et du bilan hydrique annuel moyen, peut être détecté dans un bassin versant amont tropical de 73,4 km 2 au Costa Rica. Un modèle conceptuel pluiedébit semi-distribué a été adapté pour conceptualiser les processus hydrologiques dominants de la zone d'étude, déterminés de façon empirique. Il a été calé sur plusieurs critères, à l'aide de différentes fonctions objectif et de contraintes empiriques sur les simulations du modèle, dans le cadre d'une approche de Monte-Carlo pour tenir compte de l'incertitude sur les paramètres. Les résultats suggèrent que le changement d'occupation des sols a eu peu d'effet sur le rendement en eau annuel moyen (<3%). Toutefois, la dynamique des débits se montre sensible en termes de fréquence, de temporalité et d'ampleur des débits extrêmes. Pour les faibles débits et les débits de pointe de périodes de retour supérieures à un an, le changement d'utilisation des sols a eu une influence mineure sur la réponse en d...

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Section: Conceptual Rainfall-runoff Modelling In the Tropics And Relamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Potential Effects Of Land-use Change and Pes Schemes On Strementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Birkel

Soulsby

Tetzlaff

2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…The HBV rainfall-runoff model version of Seibert and McDonnell (2010) was employed for hydrological simulations in this study. HBV is a physically based rainfall-runoff model that has been used throughout the world under different hydrological conditions.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross-scale ensemble projections of dissolved organic carbon dynamics in boreal forest streams

et al. 2014

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Climate is an important driver of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in boreal catchments characterized by networks of streams within forest-wetland landscape mosaics. In this paper, we assess how climate change may affect stream DOC concentrations ([DOC]) and export from boreal forest streams with a multi-model ensemble approach. First, we apply an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) to project soil temperatures and stream-flows. These data are then used to drive two biogeochemical models of surface water DOC: (1) The Integrated Catchment model for Carbon (INCA-C), a detailed process-based model of DOC operating at the catchment scale, and (2) The Riparian Integration Model (RIM), a simple dynamic hillslope scale model of stream [DOC]. All RCMs project a consistent increase in temperature and precipitation as well as a shift in spring runoff peaks from May to April. However, they present a considerable range of possible future runoff conditions with an ensemble median increase of 31 % between current and future (2061-2090) conditions. Both biogeochemical models perform well in describing the dynamics of presentday stream [DOC] and fluxes, but disagree in their future projections. Here, we assess possible futures in three boreal catchments representative of forest, mire and mixed landscape elements. INCA-C projects a wider range of stream [DOC] due to its temperature sensitivity, whereas RIM gives consistently larger inter-annual variation and a wider range of exports due to its sensitivity to hydrological variations. The uncertainties associated with modeling complex processes that control future DOC dynamics in boreal and temperate catchments are still the main limitation to our understanding of DOC mechanisms under changing climate conditions. Novel, currently overlooked or unknown drivers may appear that will present new challenges to modelling DOC in the future.

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“…Fewer studies have examined how traditional modeling approaches must be modified to handle nonstationary conditions, or how modeling methods can be used to assess impacts of land use change. Split sample calibration has been used frequently to retrospectively examine changes to model parameters due to land use or climatic change (Seibert and McDonnell, 2010;Coron et al, 2012;McIntyre and Marshall, 2010;Legesse et al, 2003). Several other studies have employed scenario modeling, whereby hydrologic models are parameterized to represent different possible future land use conditions (e.g., Niu and Sivakumar, 2013;Elfert and Borman, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Pathiraja

Anghileri

Burlando

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a mediumsized catchment (2880 km 2 ) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a timevarying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

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Land-cover impacts on streamflow: a change-detection modelling approach that incorporates parameter uncertainty

Cited by 103 publications

References 39 publications

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Cross-scale ensemble projections of dissolved organic carbon dynamics in boreal forest streams

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

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