Land‐based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country

Roe, Stephanie; Streck, Charlotte; Beach, Robert; Busch, Jonah; Chapman, Melissa; Daioglou, Vassilis; Депперманн, Андре; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Emmet‐Booth, Jeremy; Engelmann, Jens; Fricko, Oliver; Frischmann, Chad; Funk, Jason; Grassi, Giacomo; Griscom, Bronson W.; Havlík, Petr; Hanssen, Steef V.; Humpenöder, Florian; Landholm, David M.; Lomax, Guy; Lehmann, Johannes; Mesnildrey, Leah; Nabuurs, Gert‐Jan; Popp, Alexander; Rivard, Charlotte; Sanderman, Jonathan; Sohngen, Brent; Smith, Pete; Stehfest, Elke; Woolf, Dominic; Lawrence, Deborah

doi:10.1111/gcb.15873

Cited by 148 publications

(179 citation statements)

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“…This risk could be mitigated by introducing the penalty to local warming introduced here. The realized A/R area and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential under SSP2 conditions in this study is considerably lower than the maximum potential found by 'bottom-up' studies assessing the limits of land-based mitigation attainable with current knowledge and technology [35][36][37]. Based on this maximum potential a cost-effective estimate is often deduced.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…Limiting the feasible mitigation below a certain cost threshold (e.g. $100 per tCO 2 ) [36,37]. However, the economic potential studied 'top-down' with integrated assessment models (IAMs), as is done here, commonly is even lower than the feasible, cost-effective limit as shown by Roe et al [37].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…$100 per tCO 2 ) [36,37]. However, the economic potential studied 'top-down' with integrated assessment models (IAMs), as is done here, commonly is even lower than the feasible, cost-effective limit as shown by Roe et al [37]. Based on an extensive literature review and 131 scenarios of six IAMs, Roe et al [37] found a median A/R CDR rate of 475 MtCO 2 yr −1 (min./max.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Accounting for local temperature effect substantially alters afforestation patterns

Windisch

Humpenöder

Popp

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Human intervention in forested ecosystems is hoped to perform a fundamental shift within the next decade by reverting current forest loss – a major source of CO2 emissions – to net forest gain taking up carbon and thus aiding climate change mitigation. The demanded extensive establishment of forests will change the local surface energy fluxes, and with it the local climate, in addition to competing with food and fiber production for land and water. Scenario building models encompass this competition for resources but have turned a blind eye to the biogeophysical (BGP) local surface energy flux disturbance so far. We combine the benefit of CO2 sequestration of Afforestation/Reforestation (A/R) with the additional incentive or penalty of local BGP induced cooling or warming by translating the local BGP induced temperature change to a CO2 equivalent. We then include this new aspect in the land-use model MAgPIE via modifying the application of the price on greenhouse gases (GHG). This enables us to use MAgPIE to produce A/R scenarios that are optimized for both their potential CO2 sequestration and the CO2 equivalent local BGP effect, as well as the socio-economic trade-offs of A/R. Here we show that optimal A/R patterns are substantially altered by taking the local BGP effects into account. Considering local cooling benefits of establishing forests triples (+203.4%) the viable global A/R area in 2100 from 116 Mha to 351 Mha under the conditions of the Shared Socio-economic Pathway 2 (SSP2) scenario driven by the same GHG price. Three quarters (76.0%, +179 Mha) of the additionally forested area is established in tropical climates alone. Therefore, further neglect of BGP effects in scenario building models undervalues the benefit of tropical forests while simultaneously running the risk of proposing counterproductive measures at high latitudes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Accounting for local temperature effect substantially alters afforestation patterns

Windisch

Humpenöder

Popp

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…This is particularly valuable for informing meso-scale planning and designing non-quantitative indicators for monitoring NCS, such as when setting national targets and extrapolating insights from specific case studies may present biases due to heterogeneity within the country. Furthermore, this study contributes to an emerging research field to advance the implementation of NCS by complementing recent publications on the potentials, costs, and feasibility of NCS (Griscom et al 2020, Roe et al 2021. Finally, it develops a comprehensive and in-depth database that can facilitate a move towards more normative research (Nielsen et al 2019), for example, by highlighting key research questions and validating or challenging widely held assumptions and narratives around the potential of NCS, the current discourse and state of research, and the realities on-the-ground.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…However, an understanding of how, if, and where these potentials can be met and with what trade-offs and co-benefits remains underresearched (IPCC 2019). As such, attention is shifting to the need for more information and data on the feasibility of NCS activities, in particular at the country-level and lower (Brancalion et al 2019, Chazdon et al 2020, Roe et al 2021.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What influences the implementation of natural climate solutions? A systematic map and review of the evidence

Schulte

Eggers

Nielsen

et al. 2021

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Emerging research points to large greenhouse gas mitigation opportunities for activities that are focused on the preservation and maintenance of ecosystems, also known as natural climate solutions (NCS). Despite large quantifications of the potential biophysical and carbon benefits of these activities, these estimates hold large uncertainties and few capture the socio-economic bounds. Furthermore, the uptake of NCS remains slow and information on the enabling factors needed for successful implementation, co-benefits, and trade-offs of these activities remain underrepresented at scale. As such, we present a systematic review that synthesizes and maps the bottom-up evidence on the contextual factors that influence the implementation of NCS in the peer-reviewed literature. Drawing from a large global collection of (primarily case study-based, N=211) research, this study (1) clarifies the definition of NCS, including in the context of nature-based solutions and other ecosystem-based approaches to addressing climate change; (2) provides an overview of the current state of literature, including research trends, opportunities, gaps, and biases; and (3) critically reflects on factors that may affect implementation in different geographies. We find that the content of the reviewed studies overwhelmingly focuses on tropical regions and activities in forest landscapes. We observe that implementation of NCS rely, not on one factor, but a suite of interlinked enabling factors. Specifically, engagement of indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLC), performance-based finance, and technical assistance are important drivers of NCS implementation. While the broad categories of factors mentioned in the literature are similar across regions, the combination of factors and how and for whom they are taken up remains heterogeneous globally, and even within countries. Thus our results highlight the need to better understand what trends may be generalizable to inform best practices in policy discussions and where more nuance may be needed for interpreting research findings and applying them outside of their study contexts.

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The implications of geopolitical, socioeconomic, and regulatory constraints on European bioenergy imports and associated greenhouse gas emissions to 2050

Mandley

Wicke

Junginger

et al. 2022

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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Modern sustainable bioenergy can contribute toward mid‐century European energy decarbonization targets by replacing fossil fuels. Fulfilling this role would require access to increased volumes of bioenergy, with extra‐EU imports projected to play an important part. Access to this resource on the international marketplace is not governed by Europe's economic competitiveness alone. This study investigates geopolitical, socioeconomic, and regulatory considerations that can influence Europe's bioenergy imports but that are so far underexplored. The effect of these constraints on European import volumes, sourcing regions, mitigation potential, and their implications for European and global emissions is projected to the year 2050 using a global integrated assessment model. The projections show that Europe can significantly increase imports from 1.5 EJ year−1 in 2020 to 8.1 EJ year−1 by 2050 whilst remaining compliant with Renewables Energy Directive recast II (RED II) greenhouse gas (GHG) criteria. Under these conditions, bioenergy could provide annual GHG mitigation of 0.44 GtCO2eq. in 2050. However, achieving this would require a structural diversification of trading partners from the present. Furthermore, socioeconomic and logistical concerns may limit the feasibility of some of the projected major sourcing regions, including Africa and South America. Failure to overcome these challenges within supplying regions could limit European imports by 60%, reducing annual mitigation to 0.16 GtCO2eq. in 2050. From a global perspective, regions with a comparatively carbon‐intense energy system offer an alternative destination for globally traded biomass that could increase the mitigative potential of bioenergy. © 2022 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Land‐based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creat ive Commo ns Attri bution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 148 publications

References 93 publications

Accounting for local temperature effect substantially alters afforestation patterns

Accounting for local temperature effect substantially alters afforestation patterns

What influences the implementation of natural climate solutions? A systematic map and review of the evidence

The implications of geopolitical, socioeconomic, and regulatory constraints on European bioenergy imports and associated greenhouse gas emissions to 2050

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