Lake Chad Changing Hydrography, Violent Extremism, and Climate-Conflict Intersection

Abstract

Africa's Lake Chad is the convergence point of a complex humanitarian disaster courtesy of violence, climate change, and remote, ungoverned areas. 1 As the hydrography of Lake Chad changes, decreasing in size by nearly 90 percent since the 1960s, the vanishing shoreline exposes new prospects for militarized actors to establish and retain control. 2 This study asserts that Lake Chad's changing hydrography has provided violent extremists with strategic opportunities to increase their foothold in the water-scarce Lake Chad Basin. Through an explanatory sequential mixed methods research design, this spatial analysis tests the relationship between conflict and environmental changes in the region. A linear regression model yields statistically significant quantitative evidence at a 95-percent significance level (α = 0.05) to support a strong and Captain Thomas E. Griffin is a civil affairs officer in the U.S. Army Reserve, serving as a company commander with the 403d Civil Affairs Battalion in Syracuse, NY. His military experience includes overseas deployments to Cameroon as a civil affairs team leader and to Afghanistan as an operations advisor to the Afghan National Army. In his civilian career, he manages enrollment and business analytics for the University of Vermont's Continuing and Distance Education department. He is currently a PhD candidate in educational policy and leadership studies at the University of Vermont. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Marine Corps University, the Department of the Navy, the U.S. Army, or the U.S. government. Expeditions with MCUP 2 positive correlation between armed conflict and time (from 2009 to 2019) in this area. The spatial results indicate that armed conflict has increased across this specific landscape, which has been physically altered over time due to several socioenvironmental factors. These results expose serious security implications related to climate change, water scarcity, and increasing conflict. This article concludes by calling for an improved security strategy that addresses the conflictclimate trap seen across the Lake Chad Basin.

The Nexus of Climate and Conflict in the Lake Chad Region: What We Know, Don’t Know and Need to Know

“…We note that perceptions and responses regarding how to deal with climate conflict concerns differ across the various publications we reviewed. Some (e.g., Okpara et al, 2018;Vivekananda et al, 2019;Griffin, 2020;Frimpong, 2020;Fisker, 2021;Jedwab et al, 2021) emphasised the integration of climate action, peace action and water action, whereas others (e.g., Adelphi, 2018;SIDA, 2018;Vestby, 2019;Caron, 2020;Lyammouri, 2020;Stuart, 2022) suggested interventions that target behavioural change, building of stronger environmental governance and human rights institutions, and maintaining sustainable access to jobs and income. Ultimately, breaking the nexus requires differentiating between specific conflictversus climate-induced vulnerabilities and related socioeconomic crises fuelling the nexus (Griffin, 2020).…”

“…This article is about 'climate conflict' evidence synthesis and analysis. The article focuses on the Lake Chad region, a typical fragile and conflict-afflicted environment that is considered by many researchers as particularly well-suited for pinning down the spectrum of what is considered a climate and conflict nexus (Griffin, 2020;Jedweb et al, 2021). The Lake Chad region is threatened by high temperatures, dry air and thermal discomfort (Okpara et al, 2018).…”

The climate change, conflict and migration nexus: A holistic view

“…riots, anti‐government protesting and sectarian violence) (UNHCR, 2021). It has also been hypothesized that depending on the surrounding political and social situation, the lack of resources could directly trigger conflict (Abel et al., 2019; Fjelde & von Uexkull, 2012; Griffin, 2020; Vestby, 2019). This is then likely to lead to increased migration, depending on its severity (Carius, 2017; Comolli, 2017; Lipp, 2017; Schon, 2018; Seven, 2020).…”

Water and Food Sustainability in the Riparian Countries of Lake Chad in Africa

“…The viability of Lake Chad has been undermined due to an unplanned irrigation scheme coupled with the increasing population in the region [39]. Griffin [40] posits that attention given to Lake Chad and its region is poor because the parliamentary seat (headquarters) of each country's government (Yaounde, Abuja, Niamey, and N'Djamena) are at a much farther distance from Lake Chad, and there is an ongoing political conflict in Cameroon.…”