Lagged influence of ENSO regimes on droughts over the Poyang Lake basin, China

Xing, Zikang; Yu, Zhongbo; Wei, Jianhui; Zhang, Xuejun; Ma, Miaomiao; Yi, Peng; Ju, Qin; Wang, Jiayi; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106218

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…In addition, this study comprehensively reflects the drought situation using multiple sources of data and speculates on the causes of drought, attributing insufficient precipitation and excessive evapotranspiration as direct triggers. A significant body of research suggests that the underlying reasons for this drought in the Yangtze River and its tributaries are influenced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation with a lag effect [31,80]. Further research will delve into deeper levels of analysis to prepare for prediction and historical estimation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing the 2022 Extreme Drought Event over the Poyang Lake Basin Using Multiple Satellite Remote Sensing Observations and In Situ Data

Liu,

Wu,

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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With advancements in remote sensing technology and the increasing availability of remote sensing platforms, the capacity to monitor droughts using multiple satellite remote sensing observations has significantly improved. This enhanced capability facilitates a comprehensive understanding of drought conditions and early warnings for extreme drought events. In this study, multiple satellite datasets, including Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) precipitation dataset, and the Global Land the Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) dataset, were used to conduct an innovative in-depth characteristic analysis and identification of the extreme drought event in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) in 2022. Furthermore, the drought characteristics were also supplemented by processing the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image data to obtain lake water area changes and integrating in situ water level data as well as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index dataset, which provided additional instances of utilizing multi-source remote sensing satellite data for feature analysis on extreme drought events. The extreme drought event in 2022 was identified by the detection of non-seasonal negative anomalies in terrestrial water storage derived from the GRACE and GLDAS datasets. The Mann–Kendall (M-K) test results for water levels indicated a significant abrupt decrease around July 2022, passing a significance test with a 95% confidence level, which further validated the reliability of our finding. The minimum area of Poyang Lake estimated by SAR data, corresponding to 814 km2, matched well with the observed drought characteristics. Additionally, the evident lower vegetation index compared to other years also demonstrated the severity of the drought event. The utilization of these diverse datasets and their validation in this study can contribute to achieving a multi-dimensional monitoring of drought characteristics and the establishment of more robust drought models.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing the 2022 Extreme Drought Event over the Poyang Lake Basin Using Multiple Satellite Remote Sensing Observations and In Situ Data

Liu,

Wu,

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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“…We classified a growth cycle as EN-type if it occurred entirely within an El Niño period, and similarly for LN. Due to the delayed impact of ENSO on climate (Zhou et al 2021, Xing et al 2022, NE growth cycles were defined as those occurring entirely within a Neutral period and starting at least 6 months after the last ENSO event. The numbers of growth cycles for NE-, EN-and LN-type were 124, 90, and 68, respectively.…”

Section: Classification Of Enso Phases and Corresponding Growth Cyclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study highlights the impact of ENSO on the suitability of facility agriculture during different ENSO phases. However, it is important to consider the time lag between ENSO episodes and their effects in some regions in future studies (Shuai et al 2013, Xing et al 2022. Strengthening the analysis of delayed ENSO effects can enable predictions of climate suitability for facility agriculture some months before transplanting.…”

Section: Limitations Of the Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing suitability of major meteorological factors for facility agriculture in mainland China

Zhang,

Zhu,

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In China, more than two-thirds of protected cultivation occurs in low-tech facilities with limited ability to withstand adverse weather conditions. However, the specific meteorological factors that hinder facility agriculture production in various locations remain unclear. Here, we evaluated temperature and sunlight for assessing facility agriculture suitability in mainland China across different transplanting dates and ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral) and to determine the optimal transplanting window. This aids in reducing climatic risks, and enhancing adaptation to changing climates. The results showed that growth cycles starting from March to June provide suitable temperature and sunlight, making them ideal transplanting window for many parts of northern China. However, both El Niño and La Niña significantly increased the high-temperature days and shortened the optimal transplanting window. For growth cycles starting from July to the following January, low temperatures are the primary factor limiting facility agriculture production in northern and western China. In southern China, sparse sunlight is the primary limiting factor year-round, and El Niño exacerbates this, particularly for growth cycles starting from September to November. This combined assessment of major meteorological factors, transplanting dates, ENSO phases, and regions, can assist decision-makers and growers in adapting to the changing climate and minimizing production risks.

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“…The land use in the Poyang Lake basin consists of forest (46%), shrubland (25%), cropland (25%), and small areas of pasture, urban, and open water (4%) (Ye et al, 2011;Zhang et al, 2014). The climate of the basin is categorized as a humid subtropical climate and has a strong seasonality of hot humid summers and cool dry winters (Wagner et al, 2016), which is mainly controlled by the East Asian monsoon (Ding & Chan, 2005;Xing et al, 2022;Zhang et al, 2011). The rainy season of the basin ranges from April to June and the summer is from June to August (Zhang et al, 2016).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The rainy season of the basin ranges from April to June and the summer is from June to August (Zhang et al, 2016). The mean annual basin-averaged 2-meter air temperature is around 17.5 °C, evaporation and precipitation are around 900 mm year -1 and 1680 mm year -1 , respectively (Li & Zhang, 2011;Wei et al, 2015;Xing et al, 2022).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Acceleration of the hydrological cycle under global warming? An age-weighted regional water tagging approach

Wei

Arnault

Rummler

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Global warming is assumed to accelerate the global water cycle. However, quantification of the acceleration and regional analyses remain open. Accordingly, in this study we address the fundamental hydrological question: Is the water cycle regionally accelerating/decelerating under global warming? For our investigation we have implemented the age-weighted regional water tagging approach into the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF model, namely WRF-age, to follow the atmospheric water pathways and to derive atmospheric water residence times accordingly. Moreover, we have implemented the three-dimensional online budget analysis of the total, tagged, and aged atmospheric water into WRF-age to provide a prognostic equation of the atmospheric water residence times. The newly developed, physics-based WRF-age model is used to regionally downscale the reanalysis of ERA-Interim and the MPI-ESM Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) simulation exemplarily for an East Asian monsoon region, i.e., the Poyang Lake basin (the tagged moisture source area), for two 10-year slices of historical (1980-1989) and future (2040-2049) times. In comparison to the historical simulation, the future 2-meter temperature rises by +1.4 °C, evaporation increases by +6%, and precipitation decreases by -38% under RCP8.5 on average. In this context, global warming leads to regionally decreased residence times for the tagged water vapor by 8 hours and the tagged condensed moisture by 12 hours in the atmosphere, but increased transit times for the tagged precipitation by 4 hours over the land surface that is partly attributed to a slower fallout of precipitating moisture components in the atmosphere under global warming.

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Lagged influence of ENSO regimes on droughts over the Poyang Lake basin, China

Cited by 13 publications

References 62 publications

Characterizing the 2022 Extreme Drought Event over the Poyang Lake Basin Using Multiple Satellite Remote Sensing Observations and In Situ Data

Characterizing the 2022 Extreme Drought Event over the Poyang Lake Basin Using Multiple Satellite Remote Sensing Observations and In Situ Data

Assessing suitability of major meteorological factors for facility agriculture in mainland China

Acceleration of the hydrological cycle under global warming? An age-weighted regional water tagging approach

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