Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season

Evers, Sanne; Knight, Tiffany M.; Inouye, David W.; Miller, Tom E. X.; Salguero‐Gómez, Roberto; Iler, Amy M.; Compagnoni, Aldo

doi:10.1111/gcb.15519

Cited by 29 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 91 publications

(139 reference statements)

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“…These findings stress the complexity of plant responses to climate change and reinforce the need to focus on species-specific responses when predicting climate change impacts on populations (Rixen et al, 2010;Bellard et al, 2012). Such insights have multiple implications for understanding ecosystem functioning and diversity (Evers et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the sensitivity of emergence and survival of seedlings to temperature has been well documented (e.g., James et al, 2019;Yi et al, 2019), our results emphasize the role of synergies between winter and spring drought and extremely hot summers. Such synergies may be critical for the water reservoir in the soil (Schär et al, 2004), with implications for plant regeneration and the maintenance of stable populations (Evers et al, 2021).…”

Section: Recruitment and Population Dynamics Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These can be instead identified by analysis of long-term time-series of recruitment pulses and annual biomass increments. However, such information is scarce due to technical limitations associated with the collection and analysis of well replicated and sufficiently long, annually resolved field records (Evers et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate fluctuations drive the recruitment and growth of temperate grassland plants

Doležal

Altman

Jandová

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Recent climate warming is associated with the increasing magnitude and frequency of extreme events, including heatwaves and drought periods worldwide. Such events can have major effects on the species composition of plant communities, hence on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here we studied responses of Central European dry grassland plants to fluctuating temperature and precipitation over the last thirty years with monthly temporal resolution. We assessed the seasonal and annual dynamics of plant recruitment and growth based on the analysis of annual growth rings from the root collar. Although most studies so far applied such methods to trees and shrubs, we focused on typical grassland plants, two forbs and two chamaephytes. We related the recruitment and annual growth to monthly and annual precipitation, temperature and aridity between 1991 and 2019. We revealed species-specific responses, namely the (i) recruitment of deep-rooted, heavy-seeded species was positively affected by precipitation in both late winter-early spring and summer, whereas recruitment of shallow-rooted, light-seeded species was weakly influenced by climate fluctuations; (ii) growth of shallow-rooted species was more adversely affected by high summer temperature and drought than the growth of deep-rooted species. The population age structure of all the studied species was affected by the climate of the past decades. Most individuals established in the wet period of the 2000s, fewer in the precipitation-poorer 1990s, and the establishment was considerably reduced in the dry and warm period of the 2010s. Our findings indicate that the change towards warmer and drier climate has a profound effect even on drought-adapted ecosystems such as temperate dry grasslands. However, plant responses to various climatic extremes are species-specific, depending on their characteristics, such as life form or rooting depth. Consequently, the ongoing and anticipated climate warming will likely result in complex changes in species composition and other ecosystem properties of temperate grasslands.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Recruitment and Population Dynamics Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate fluctuations drive the recruitment and growth of temperate grassland plants

Doležal

Altman

Jandová

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…For example, for year 2012 (t = 2012) we considered the climate anomaly observed between June 2011 and May 2012, and between June 2010 and May 2011 to predict the flowering probability and number of inflorescences observed in June 2012, and to predict the survival and growth occurred from June 2012 to June 2013. We thus tested for a lag in the effect of climatic drivers on plant vital rates (see also Tenhumberg et al 2018, Evers et al 2021).…”

Section: Modeling Of Size-dependent Vital Rates and Climate Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing temperature threatens an already endangered coastal dune plant

2021

Self Cite

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Climate change has the potential to reduce the abundance and distribution of species and threaten global biodiversity, but it is typically not listed as a threat in classifying species conservation status. This likely occurs because demonstrating climate change as a threat requires data-intensive demographic information. Moreover, the threat from climate change is often studied in specific biomes, such as polar or arid ones. Other biomes, such as coastal ones, have received little attention, despite being currently exposed to substantial climate change effects. We forecast the effect of climate change on the demography and population size of a federally endangered coastal dune plant (Lupinus tidestromii). We use data from a 14-yr demographic study across seven extant populations of this endangered plant. Using model selection, we found that survival and fertility measures responded negatively to temperature anomalies. We then produced forecasts based on stochastic individual-based population models that account for uncertainty in demographic outcomes. Despite large uncertainties, we predict that all populations will decline if temperatures increase by 1°C. Considering the total number of individuals across all seven populations, the most likely outcome is a population decline of 90%. Moreover, we predict extinction is certain for one of our seven populations. These results demonstrate that climate change will profoundly decrease the current and future population growth rates of this plant, and its chance of persistence. Thus, our study provides the first evidence that climate change is an extinction threat for a plant species classified as endangered under the USA Endangered Species Act.

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“…They are also essential because while some demographic effects of fragmentation or drought can be detected immediately, others may take years to manifest ( e.g., Gagnon et al, 2011). Indeed, lagged responses of demographic vital rates to climate may be the rule rather than the exception (Anderegg et al, 2015; Evers et al, 2021; Kannenberg et al, 2020; Schwalm et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delayed effects of climate on vital rates lead to demographic divergence in Amazonian forest fragments

Scott

Uriarte

Bruna

2021

Preprint

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Deforestation often results in landscapes where remaining forest habitat is highly fragmented, with remnants of different sizes embedded in an often highly contrasting matrix. Local extinction of species from individual fragments is common, but the demographic mechanisms underlying these extinctions are poorly understood. It is often hypothesized that altered environmental conditions in fragments drive declines in reproduction, recruitment, or survivorship. The Amazon basin, in addition to experiencing continuing fragmentation, is warming and experiencing changes in precipitation leading to altered frequency and intensity of droughts and unusually wet periods. Whether plant populations in tropical forest fragments are particularly susceptible to extremes in precipitation remains unclear. Most studies of plants in fragments are relatively short (1-6 years), focus on a single life-history stage, and often do not compare to populations in continuous forest. Even fewer studies consider delayed effects of climate on demographic vital rates despite the importance of delayed effects in studies that consider them. Using a decade of demographic and climate data from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the Central Amazon, we assess the effects of climate on populations of an understory herb (Heliconia acuminata, Heliconiaceae). We used distributed lag non-linear models to understand the delayed effects of temperature and precipitation on survival, growth, and flowering. We detected delayed effects of climate up to 36 months. Drought two dry seasons prior to the February census decreased survival and increased flowering probability while drought in the wet season a year prior to the census decreased flowering probability and increased growth. The effects of extremes in precipitation on survival and growth were more pronounced in forest fragments compared to continuous forest. The complex delayed effects of climate and habitat fragmentation in our study point to the importance of long-term demography experiments in understanding the effects of anthropogenic change on plant populations.

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Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season

Cited by 29 publications

References 91 publications

Climate fluctuations drive the recruitment and growth of temperate grassland plants

Climate fluctuations drive the recruitment and growth of temperate grassland plants

Increasing temperature threatens an already endangered coastal dune plant

Delayed effects of climate on vital rates lead to demographic divergence in Amazonian forest fragments

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