Lack of detail in population-level data impedes analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and clinical outcomes

Ong, Sean Wei Xiang; Young, Barnaby Edward; Lye, David C.

doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00201-2

Cited by 32 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…This development negates the achievement of the resolution of May 2020 at the 73rd World Health Assembly, where mass vaccination was identified as a prerequisite for the timely containment of COVID-19 [42]. Moreover, it has been emphasized that inadequate coverage of vaccines in a particular country could undermine global efforts at addressing the ongoing pandemic due to the mutation tendency of the virus [43][44][45].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compliance Indicators of COVID-19 Prevention and Vaccines Hesitancy in Kenya: A Random-Effects Endogenous Probit Model

Oyekale

2021

Vaccines

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Vaccine hesitancy remains a major public health concern in the effort towards addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. This study analyzed the effects of indicators of compliance with preventive practices on the willingness to take COVID-19 vaccines in Kenya. The data were from the COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Surveys conducted between January and June 2021 during the fourth and fifth waves. The data were analyzed with the random-effects endogenous Probit regression model, with estimated parameters tested for robustness and stability. The results showed that willingness to take vaccines increased between the fourth and fifth waves. Compliance with many of the preventive practices also improved, although the utilizations of immune system-promoting practices were very low. The panel Probit regression results showed that compliance indicators were truly endogenous and there was existence of random effects. Immune system-boosting and contact-prevention indicators significantly increased and decreased the willingness to take vaccines, respectively (p < 0.01). The experience of mental health disorders in the form of nervousness and hopelessness also significantly influenced vaccine hesitancy (p < 0.10). Willingness to take vaccines also significantly increased among older people and those with a formal education (p < 0.01). Different forms of association exist between vaccine hesitancy and the prevention compliance indicators. There is a need to properly sensitize the people to the need to complement compliance with COVID-19 contact-prevention indicators with vaccination. Addressing mental health disorders in the form of loneliness, nervousness, depression, hopelessness and anxiety should also become the focus of public health, while efforts to reduce vaccine hesitancy should focus on individuals without formal education, males and youths.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compliance Indicators of COVID-19 Prevention and Vaccines Hesitancy in Kenya: A Random-Effects Endogenous Probit Model

Oyekale

2021

Vaccines

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“…Fourth, due to the lack of data from different Brazilian regions, we aggregated the national COVID-19 cases in Brazil to reconstruct the reproduction number series ( Figure 1B ). We acknowledge this analytical scheme neglects the heterogeneities in epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 transmission, 55 , 74 , 87 , 88 geographic separation in SARS-CoV-2 variants, 89 individual response and vulnerability to COVID-19, 90 – 92 and various nonpharmaceutical interventions 93 , 94 for wide regions across different Brazilian locations. We note that the transmission advantage may vary under different local settings or situations.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Interaction between E484K and N501Y Substitutions of SARS-CoV-2 in Shaping the Transmission Advantage of COVID-19 in Brazil: A Modeling Study

Zhao

Ran

Han

2021

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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The COVID-19 pandemic poses serious threats to global health, and the emerging mutation in SARS-CoV-2 genomes is one of the major challenges of disease control. Considering the growth of epidemic curve and the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in Brazil, the role of locally prevalent E484K and N501Y substitutions in contributing to the epidemiological outcomes is of public health interest for investigation. We developed a likelihood-based statistical framework to reconstruct reproduction numbers, estimate transmission advantage associated with different SARS-CoV-2 variants regarding the marking (identifying) 484K and 501Y substitutions (including Alpha, Zeta, and Gamma variants) in Brazil, and explored the interactive effects of genetic activities on transmission advantage marked by these two mutations. We found a significant transmission advantage associated with the 484K/501Y variants (including P.1 or Gamma variants), which increased the infectivity significantly by 23%. In contrast and by comparison to Gamma variants, E484K or N501Y (including Alpha or Zeta variants) substitution alone appeared less likely to secure a concrete transmission advantage in Brazil. Our finding indicates that the combined impact of genetic activities on transmission advantage marked by 484K/501Y outperforms their independent contributions in Brazil, which implies an interactive effect in shaping the increase in the infectivity of COVID-19. Future studies are needed to investigate the mechanisms of how E484K and N501Y mutations and the complex genetic mutation activities marked by them in SARS-CoV-2 affect the transmissibility of COVID-19.

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“…Other studies find no increase in case fatality rate due to VOC B.1.1.7. 50 Third, that lockdowns are highly effective at reducing transmission of the VOC. We already discussed that this is likely an exaggeration.…”

Section: Objections Consideredmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying Philosophy, Logic, and Rational Argumentation to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 Pandemic Response

Joffe¹,

Redman²

2021

Preprint

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Part of philosophy is to subject assertions to critical scrutiny, clarifying exactly what the assertion is saying, its implications, and thus its direct plausibility. The goal is to ensure clarity, logical consistency, and rational argumentation in order to arrive at reasoned conclusions. A common problem is that arguments have missing implied premises that, unless explicitly stated, are mistakenly assumed to be true. Here we subject conclusions made regarding the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to critical scrutiny, revealing their implied premises so that these premises can be explicitly examined and refuted. Specifically, we refute the conclusions that “no one is protected until everyone is protected” and “population lockdowns are required to protect those at high risk of adverse outcomes.” In the end, we argue for the conclusion that “an Emergency Management principles based response to the pandemic, compared to population-wide lockdowns, offers a way to prevent more adverse outcomes from COVID-19, better prevent overwhelmed healthcare, and prevent most of the collateral damage to the wellbeing of the population that has resulted from the lockdowns.”

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Lack of detail in population-level data impedes analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and clinical outcomes

Cited by 32 publications

References 12 publications

Compliance Indicators of COVID-19 Prevention and Vaccines Hesitancy in Kenya: A Random-Effects Endogenous Probit Model

Compliance Indicators of COVID-19 Prevention and Vaccines Hesitancy in Kenya: A Random-Effects Endogenous Probit Model

Exploring the Interaction between E484K and N501Y Substitutions of SARS-CoV-2 in Shaping the Transmission Advantage of COVID-19 in Brazil: A Modeling Study

Applying Philosophy, Logic, and Rational Argumentation to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 Pandemic Response

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