Abstract:The paper presents a complete energy balance model of suspended frazil ice formation in the tidal water column of the St. Lawrence River. The model estimates of suspended frazil ice concentration are compared to in situ observations of an analogue of suspended frazil ice crystals, with good results. A time series of observed acoustic backscattering from suspended frazil serves as the analogue of the suspended frazil concentration. The model of frazil ice growth is used to estimate the rate of increase in mass of the suspended frazil ice by balancing the net rate of energy exchange with the atmosphere with the observed changes in water temperature and in anchor ice thickness. The positive results are achieved despite a number of difficulties with analysis. These difficulties include the bias resulting from the inability of the sonar to detect across the complete size range of suspended ice, the unknown impacts of advection, the unknown impact of anchor ice build-up on temperature and sonar readings, and the lack of knowledge regarding the accuracy of sonar estimation of anchor ice thickness. These results highlight the promise of models, suitably applied, and sonar to quantitatively estimate suspended frazil ice concentration.