L'anticipation du changement en prospective et des changements spatiaux en géoprospective

Voiron-Canicio, Christine

doi:10.3917/eg.412.0099

Cited by 28 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The recent papers use on average a higher number of different projections (~5.4/ study) than the influential ones (~3.6/study). This is in line with studies showing that the use of around three alternative scenarios facilitates further discussion and selection (Voiron-Canicio 2012).…”

Section: ) Contrasted Storylines Vs a Broad Range Of Possible Futuressupporting

confidence: 89%

What ecologists should know before using land use/cover change projections for biodiversity and ecosystem service assessments

Albert¹,

Hervé²,

Fader

et al. 2020

Reg Environ Change

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Scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are key for decision-makers to understand the consequences of future environmental change on BES. Though a major driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss, land use and land cover changes (LUCC) have been largely overlooked in previous BES assessments. But ecologists lack practical guidance for the general use of LUCC projections. We review the practices in use in LUCC-driven BES assessments and summarize the questions ecologists should address before using LUCC projections. LUCC-driven BES scenarios rely on a substantial set of different socioeconomic storylines (> 200 for 166 papers). Studies explore different futures, but generally concentrate on projections obtained from a single LUCC model. The rationale regarding time horizon, spatial resolution, or the set of storylines used is rarely made explicit. This huge heterogeneity and low transparency regarding the what, why, and how of using LUCC projections for the study of BES futures could discourage researchers from engaging in the design of such biodiversity scenarios. Our results call on those using LUCC projections to more systematically report on the choices they make when designing LUCC-based BES scenarios (e.g. time horizon, spatial and thematic resolutions, scope of contrasted futures). Beyond the improvement of reliability, reproducibility, and comparability of these scenarios, this could also greatly benefit others wanting to use the same LUCC projections, and help land use modellers better meet the needs of their intended audiences. The uncertainties in LUCC-driven BES futures should also be explored more comprehensively, including different socioeconomic storylines and different LUCC models, as recommended in studies dealing with climate-driven BES futures.

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Section: ) Contrasted Storylines Vs a Broad Range Of Possible Futuressupporting

confidence: 89%

What ecologists should know before using land use/cover change projections for biodiversity and ecosystem service assessments

Albert¹,

Hervé²,

Fader

et al. 2020

Reg Environ Change

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“…Under this approach, the territory, as a conceptual space, is seen not only as a mere political social construct or a "passive" space of power where social actors interact but also as having power in itself the power of the space [27]. The human-geosphere relationship is a continuous social production of space [28], where the physical environment becomes an agent itself [29], shaping humans' social relationships, which, in turn, affect to different degrees some of the geosphere's dynamic processes. This social production of space can be understood as a dialogue between intrinsic and instrumental values at the different levels: the day-to-day perceived physical space through landscapes [30], the conceived spaces (or the territorial representation of space), and the land understood as a lived-symbolic space.…”

Section: A Geoethical Theoretical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Geoethical Approach to Unlock a Social-Ecological Governance Problem: The Case of the Tordera River (Catalonia, Spain)

Bellaubi

Mallarach²,

Sardá

2021

Sustainability

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This paper introduces a geoethical dilemma in the coastal zone of the Tordera Delta as a case study with the objective of showing the contribution of geoethics to the governance of coastal social-ecological systems. The Tordera Delta, located in Costa Brava, Catalonia, constitutes a social-ecological system that suffers from intense anthropization mainly due to tourist pressures causing a cascade of different environmental problems impacting the Delta functions. The massive sun and beach tourism brought human well-being and economic development to the region, but has caused an intense urbanization of the coastline that altered the coastal dynamics, eroded its beaches, and degraded many ecosystem services, a process that is being worsened today by the climate change events such as the rising sea level or the magnitude of the storms (“llevantades”), typical of the Western Mediterranean coast. Posing the problem of governance in terms of a geoethical dilemma enables discerning among the values connected to the intrinsic meaning of coastal landscapes and the instrumental values that see beaches as goods (commodities) for tourism uses. Finally, the paper reflects on options to overcome this dichotomy of values by considering meaning values as elements that forge cultural identities, contributing to highlighting this societal challenge in the Tordera Delta area, as a case study that can be useful for similar ecosystems.

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“…La conduite d'exercices de prospective est souvent combinée avec de la modélisation dans une démarche participative pour explorer des futurs possibles, la modélisation venant en soutien à la construction des scénarios (Walz et al, 2007). La mobilisation de modèles spatiaux pour la prospective permet d'objectiver et de représenter les transformations dans l'espace induites par un scénario (Gourmelon et al, 2012 ;Voiron-Canicio, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Des modèles et simulations spatiotemporelles comme « objets intermédiaires » pour mettre en débat l’étalement urbain dans l’île de La Réunion

Augusseau¹,

Degenne²,

Seen³

et al. 2017

cgq

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Un dispositif partenarial mobilisant un outil de simulation paysagère, Ocelet, a été conçu comme support d’un exercice de prospective territoriale sur une intercommunalité de l’île de La Réunion où le mitage agricole représente un enjeu important. La démarche consiste à coconstruire, au sein d’une arène d’une vingtaine d’institutions, des scénarios d’évolution de l’étalement urbain. Pour favoriser ces interactions, des modèles contextualisés sont développés. Dans la démarche, le modèle remplit différentes fonctions au sein de l’arène, de l’initiation à la mise en débat de controverses. Les acteurs du projet s’opposent sur les facteurs concourant à l’étalement urbain et sur les moyens de le réguler. Si ces positions évoluent peu durant le projet, en revanche certaines visions ou certains partis pris ont pu être révisés. La démarche collaborative et le travail de prospective territoriale sont jugés de manière très positive par une large majorité de participants, pour leur rôle de moteurs d’apprentissage collectif.A collaborative framework using a spatially explicit modeling platform, Ocelet, has been designed as a territorial planning support tool in Reunion Island, where urban sprawl is a major issue. Urban development scenarios and models were constructed collectively by a group of specialists from some twenty institutions. The first group of workshops focused on a range of diverse viewpoints put forward by the different institutions on ways to resolve the problem of uncontrolled urban sprawl. Although this approach did not lead to radical changes in the opinions expressed by the stakeholders involved, a majority of participants were nonetheless positive in their assessment of the broad-based, participatory scenario used for the planning and assessment framework. The vast majority of participants recognized the value of participatory modeling for fostering dialogue and conditions conducive to collective social learning.Un aparato asociativo, que utiliza “Ocelet”, instrumento de simulación paisajístico, se creó como base de un ejercicio de prospección territorial, en una inter comuna de la Isla de la Reunión, donde la proliferación anárquica de construcciones agrícolas representa un problema importante. El proceso consiste en co-construir, en una cancha, una veintena de dispositivos, escenarios de la evolución de la expansión urbana. Modelos contextualizados se construyen con el fin de favorecer tales interacciones. En el proceso, el modelo llena diferentes funciones dentro de la cancha, desde la iniciación hasta el enfrentamiento de controversias. Los actores del proyecto se oponen sobre los factores de la expansión urbana y sobre su reglamentación. Bien que ciertas posiciones cambien poco durante el proyecto, otras visiones o prejuicios han sido revisados. La colaboración y el trabajo de prospección territorial son juzgados positivamente por la mayoría de los participantes, como motor de aprendizaje colectivo

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L'anticipation du changement en prospective et des changements spatiaux en géoprospective

Cited by 28 publications

References 9 publications

What ecologists should know before using land use/cover change projections for biodiversity and ecosystem service assessments

What ecologists should know before using land use/cover change projections for biodiversity and ecosystem service assessments

A Geoethical Approach to Unlock a Social-Ecological Governance Problem: The Case of the Tordera River (Catalonia, Spain)

Des modèles et simulations spatiotemporelles comme « objets intermédiaires » pour mettre en débat l’étalement urbain dans l’île de La Réunion

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