Kyne–Donner Model of Authority’s Recommendation and Hurricane Evacuation Decisions: A Study of Hypothetical Hurricane Event in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas

Kyne, Dean; Donner, William

doi:10.1007/s11113-018-9492-2

Cited by 9 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The few existing data sets on this issue generally present behavioural intentions (i.e. hypothetical actions that people would do in case of an evacuation scenario) or post-disaster surveys for different types of evacuation scenarios [8,[51][52][53][54][55].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When τ > 1/2, we have that γ t > γ n . So, equation (8) implies that when τ > 1/2 it must be that m t ≥ m n , in a best response of the Authority. In particular, if the Authority's strategy is to…”

Section: A Best Response Of the Authoritymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Model results highlight the benefits of announced evacuation drills and suggest that improving the accuracy of threat detection can prevent large inefficiencies associated with the cry wolf effect. dynamics during evacuation [2][3][4], which aims at representing human movement and associated behaviour in case of different scenarios and threats [6,7], or models of authority's recommendations [8].Human behaviour in evacuation scenarios has also been investigated using Virtual Reality tools, as they allow the investigation of individual and group decision making during evacuation [9][10][11][12]. Experimental work has been performed in order to validate such models and tools, including the study of different types of emergent behaviours related to evacuation dynamics [13][14][15][16][17].The main limitations of these tools is that they consider evacuation scenarios in isolation and they address only one of the two parties involved in an evacuation, either (i) the decision making of the authority (i.e.…”

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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The cry wolf effect in evacuation: A game-theoretic approach

Rigos

Mohlin

Ronchi

2019

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

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In today's terrorism-prone and security-focused world, evacuation emergencies, drills, and false alarms are becoming more and more common. Compliance to an evacuation order made by an authority in case of emergency can play a key role in the outcome of an emergency. In case an evacuee experiences repeated emergency scenarios which may be a false alarm (e.g., an evacuation drill, a false bomb threat, etc.) or an actual threat, the Aesop's cry wolf effect (repeated false alarms decrease order compliance) can severely affect his/her likelihood to evacuate. To analyse this key unsolved issue of evacuation research, a game-theoretic approach is proposed. Game theory is used to explore mutual best responses of an evacuee and an authority. In the proposed model the authority obtains a signal of whether there is a threat or not and decides whether to order an evacuation or not. The evacuee, after receiving an evacuation order, subsequently decides whether to stay or leave based on posterior beliefs that have been updated in response to the authority's action. Best-responses are derived and Sequential equilibrium and Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium are used as solution concepts (refining equilibria with the intuitive criterion). Model results highlight the benefits of announced evacuation drills and suggest that improving the accuracy of threat detection can prevent large inefficiencies associated with the cry wolf effect. dynamics during evacuation [2][3][4], which aims at representing human movement and associated behaviour in case of different scenarios and threats [6,7], or models of authority's recommendations [8].Human behaviour in evacuation scenarios has also been investigated using Virtual Reality tools, as they allow the investigation of individual and group decision making during evacuation [9][10][11][12]. Experimental work has been performed in order to validate such models and tools, including the study of different types of emergent behaviours related to evacuation dynamics [13][14][15][16][17].The main limitations of these tools is that they consider evacuation scenarios in isolation and they address only one of the two parties involved in an evacuation, either (i) the decision making of the authority (i.e. their orders/instructions) or (ii) the actions of the evacuees. In contrast, currently there is no framework available which is able to comprehensively consider optimal decision making strategies for an authority and an evacuee at the same time in case of several repeated emergency evacuation threats. Many tragedies have demonstrated the dilemmas that decision makers may face when dealing with emergency situations. For instance, in relation to the Costa Concordia disaster, the Italian court trial is evaluating the behaviour of captain Schettino who allegedly did not order the evacuation of the ship on time [18]. Apart from the Captain's negligence or a simply incorrect assessment of the situation, the analysis of the trade-offs between the cost of a useless evacuation (i.e., the risk of "ruining" the holid...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Best Response Of the Authoritymentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The cry wolf effect in evacuation: A game-theoretic approach

Rigos

Mohlin

Ronchi

2019

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

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“…Further publications focus on differences regarding risk‐related behavior. They argue that women are more likely to have risk averse behavior (Kellens et al, ) and tend to need more time to evacuate (in this case because women are more likely to reside in places that are difficult to evacuate; Berg & Wilson, ), or point to a positive association of female gender with following authority's recommendations in the case of an event (Kyne & Donner, ). However, following their meta‐analysis of hurricane evacuation studies, Huang et al () doubt that there is any significant correlation between female gender and evacuation behavior.…”

Section: The Linkages Between Demographic and Natural Hazards Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

How demographic developments determine the management of hydrometeorological hazard risks in rural communities: The linkages between demographic and natural hazards research

Clar

2019

WIREs Water

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The management of hydrometeorological hazard risks increasingly builds on the notion that the main constituents—hazard risk and vulnerability—have to be understood as dynamic processes. Natural hazards and their impacts are influenced by changes in land use and impacts of climate change, whereas the vulnerability of communities is, inter alia, determined by changes in their demographic composition. Structurally weak rural regions have to face these challenges, while their capacities to manage hydrometeorological risks are affected by major demographic developments, such as population decline and demographic aging (especially in Europe). Nonetheless, academic research regarding this issue is still in its infancy. Research on the relationship between hydrometeorological hazards and long‐term demographic change often focuses on one side of the coin: impacts of hazards on the demographic composition of communities. The impacts of demographic change onto communities' ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from natural hazards appear as disregarded link. This article gives an overview over linkages by reviewing literature at the intersection of demographic and hydrological hazard research. The review of more than 90 publications provides insights into how particular demographic factors (socioeconomic status; migration, residency, and mobility; gender and gender relations; education and knowledge; and religion and beliefs) determine the management of hydrometeorological hazard risks. Furthermore, it identifies publications which consider long‐term developments. The overview shows that we lack a thorough connection between demographic change and hydrometeorological hazard risk management, which would be crucial for in‐depth studies as well as a more dynamic understanding of respective linkages. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Engineering Water > Planning Water

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Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making

et al. 2020

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This contribution explores the conceptual and empirical linkages between population dynamics and natural hazard risk management (NHRM). Following a review of the international scholarly literature, we conduct a mixed-methods approach in Austria, combining an online survey among policy makers and other stakeholders with a thematic analysis of policy documents. The aim is to investigate the practical relevance of socio-demographic change in Austria’s NHRM. The study shows that many hazard-prone regions in Austria face population change, in particular demographic ageing and population decline. In addition, our findings from the online survey demonstrate the relevance of population dynamics in NHRM, especially with regard to hazard response and recovery. Nonetheless, policy formulation in NHRM overwhelmingly disregards demographic change as a relevant factor. Accordingly, the study underscores the importance of future-oriented risk management strategies to better account for ongoing and expected socio-demographic changes.

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Kyne–Donner Model of Authority’s Recommendation and Hurricane Evacuation Decisions: A Study of Hypothetical Hurricane Event in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas

Cited by 9 publications

References 37 publications

The cry wolf effect in evacuation: A game-theoretic approach

The cry wolf effect in evacuation: A game-theoretic approach

How demographic developments determine the management of hydrometeorological hazard risks in rural communities: The linkages between demographic and natural hazards research

Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making

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