Knowledge elicitation for risk mapping in concurrent engineering projects

Abstract

Concurrent Engineering aims to incorporate the overlapping of processes in order to reduce its time-to-market and thereby sustain the existence of organizations in increasingly competitive times. Although faster product design, development, and delivery are the intended outcomes of concurrent engineering, one of the undesirable by-products is an increase in risks as a consequence of uncertainties between interdependent processes. Hence, the risks need to be identified, assessed, and mitigated together with concurrent engineering considerations for the elimination of the 'domino-effect' within risk management. This paper concentrates primarily on knowledge elicitation techniques that were used to provide information to the Intelligent Risk Mapping and Assessment System (IRMAS TM ) to identify, prioritise, analyse, and assist project managers to manage perceived sources of CE risks. Techniques such as expert interviews, brainstorming, the Delphi technique, and the analogy process are discussed in relation to compiling the knowledge used for this expert system. A total of 589 risk items were identified for different project types, and information on 4372 items and 136 lessons learned were collected from experts at HdH. The core of the research is a reasoning methodology used for Knowledge Elicitation of a Risk Mapping and Assessment System which will not only support the decisionmaking process of the user but also aid the knowledge retrieval, storage, sharing, and updating process of manufacturing organizations. This research provides a systematic engineering approach to risk management of concurrent product and process development.

Pilot Error? Managerial Decision Biases as Explanation for Disruptions in Aircraft Development

“…In concurrent engineering, the information‐absorbing downstream development phase (e.g., detail design) starts before the information‐supplying upstream phase is completed (e.g., basic design), thereby potentially reducing the overall cycle time (Clark & Fujimoto, ; Terwiesch et al, ). The main drawback of concurrent engineering is the risk of creating additional engineering rework (Mihm et al, ; Mitchell & Nault, ; Savci & Kayis, ). This happens when changes are made in the upstream phase after the preliminary start of the downstream phase.…”

“…As managers become more risk averse, they prefer first‐time‐right goals and full completion of one project stage (i.e., strict gates or high quality gates) before the next begins. Sequential engineering is viewed as a strategy to mitigate disruptions in the development process that are caused by mistakes and rework in downstream stages that are associated with a concurrent approach (Liker & Morgan, ; Savci & Kayis, ). Or, in the words of the manager cited earlier: When production fails because of design issues, the quality systems are even more strictly used next time around to make sure that we don't make any mistakes.…”

Team Collective Intelligence in Dynamically Complex Projects—A Shipbuilding Case

“…Concurrent engineering describes the process of having upstream and downstream tasks overlapped in order to minimize time to market (Ford & Sterman, 2003; Loch & Terwiesch, 1998; Mitchell & Nault, 2007). Plenty of research states that concurrent engineering by definition leads to additional mistakes (and thus unexpected work) because the downstream phase starts to work with preliminary information from the upstream phase (Mihm et al, 2003; Mitchell & Nault, 2007; Savci & Kayis, 2006).…”

A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

“…Kayis et al ( 9 ) develop a new risk mitigation methodology for new product and process design in CE projects. Savci and Kayis ( 10 ) concentrated primarily on knowledge elicitation techniques in the intelligent risk mapping and assessment system to identify, prioritize, analyze, and assist project managers to deal with perceived sources of CE risks. Tseng et al ( 11 ) demonstrated that not every aspect of engineering design and/or manufacturing capability is linked with customers and suppliers proactively throughout the PD process.…”