Kinetic Model of Aging Biological Species in Natural Habitat

Viktorov, A. A.; Kholodnov, V. A.; Anofriev, A. V.

doi:10.1134/s2079057019030044

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…It is also interesting to compare (Figure 5) the differences in tension (stress) of co-existence of people and animals with increase in their numbers and aging [19,24]. So, for values of parameters averaged over biological species (except for Drosophila) μ=1.520 [1.517(rats)≤μ≤1.523(dogs)], θ=0.632 [0.580(horses)≤θ≤0.665 (rats)] and k=4.485 [4.440(horses)≤k≤4.513(dogs)], average tension with aging of representatives of biological species is in interval between tension of China population with increase in its size and Russian population in period from year 1800 to 1941, exceeding the tension among China population by about 13% at D=1.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aging is characterized numerically by change in the probability of human's death from D=0 (birth) to D=1 (the probability of an unavoidable physiological fact of death). Kinetic theory of aging of various biological species is described by mathematical model based on equation (in dimensionless units) [19,22]:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Initial interval 0<D˂0.07 serves for "correction" of parameter k. In the final interval 1>D>0.7, parameter θ plays key role. Therefore, finding values of parameters begins in a first approximation with estimate of parameter μ using Gompertz distribution, when the experimental data D(τ) are approximated by solving equation (∂D/∂τ)/(1-D)≈ Aexp(ατ) in the interval 0.07 ≤D≤0.7 [19,22].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Anyway, mathematical forecast requires not only, and rather, not so much a formal adequacy of the model to previous experimental data but of author's hypothesis about the future, which predicting mathematical result on the base of clear physical idea. The goal of research is to evaluate the possibility of applying mathematical model of aging of various biological species to describe changes in the population of different countries of the World [19].…”

Section: Issn: 2578-0093mentioning

confidence: 99%

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2020

GGS

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The possibility of applying the kinetic theory of aging of biological species published earlier by the authors of this work to assess and predict changes in the number of specific populations is evaluated. The populations of the USA, China and Russia, as well as the population of mice observed in the experiment "Mouse paradise" of the American scientist John Calhoun are considered. To this end, a historically consistent analysis of the main previously proposed multi-scenario mathematical models describing demographic data and predicting the dynamics of the population was performed. The results of these models show a decrease in the population growth rate, a tendency toward a limit with an increase in historical time, the achievement of such a limit in some developed countries with a relatively high level of social security, a subsequent decrease in the number and further uncertainty of the final population outlook in the distant future. In addition, these models made it possible to establish that the observed population growth in developed countries is unambiguously accompanied by its aging-a relative predominant increase in the number of elderly people compared to the number of the younger generation (people are aging, the population of countries is aging).In this work, the assumption was made and confirmed that the dynamics of the aging of the population of the countries of the World corresponds to the dynamics of aging of a person of one generation and is mathematically described by the differential equation of the kinetic theory of aging of living systems of the same type with close values of the parameters. The biophysical meaning of the parameters of the kinetic equation reflects Selye's G [1] concept of the determining role of stress in human life and populations. An analysis of the changes in the numbers of the considered populations of humans and mice at various stages of their development is qualitatively commented on from the standpoint of comparative tension according to Selye G [1]. To assess the degree of aging of a biological object of one population in kinetic theory, the probability of death during life is selected as an indicator of aging. In this work, the probability of reaching the maximum population size was chosen as an indicator of the aging of a biological object of various populations. The published literature predicts various options for changing the population after reaching a maximum maintaining the reached maximum level and decreasing to a certain limit, less than the maximum achieved. In this paper, based on an analysis of its results and an analogy with the complete degeneration of mice in the "Mouse Paradise" experiment, a conclusion is drawn about a hypothetically possible third variant of the limiting decrease in the population-its complete degeneration.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Issn: 2578-0093mentioning

confidence: 99%

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2020

GGS

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Analysis and Forecast Based on the Kinetic Equation for Changing the Numerical Composition of Living Systems

Victorov

Kholodnov

2020

JBBS

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The possibility of applying the kinetic theory of aging of biological species published earlier by the authors of this work to assess and predict changes in the number of specific populations is evaluated. The populations of the USA, China and Russia, as well as the population of mice observed in the experiment "mouse paradise" of the American scientist John Calhoun are considered. To this end, a historically consistent analysis of the main previously proposed multi-scenario mathematical models describing demographic data and predicting the dynamics of the population was performed. The results of these models show a decrease in the population growth rate, a tendency toward a limit with an increase in historical time, the achievement of such a limit in some developed countries with a relatively high level of social security, a subsequent decrease in the number and further uncertainty of the final population outlook in the distant future. In addition, these models made it possible to establish that the observed population growth in developed countries is unambiguously accompanied by its aging - a relative predominant increase in the number of elderly people compared to the number of the younger generation (people are aging, the population of countries is aging). In this work, the assumption was made and confirmed that the dynamics of the aging of the population of the countries of the World corresponds to the dynamics of aging of a person of one generation and is mathematically described by the differential equation of the kinetic theory of aging of living systems of the same type with close values of the parameters. The biophysical meaning of the parameters of the kinetic equation reflects G. Selye's concept of the determining role of stress in human life and populations. An analysis of the changes in the numbers of the considered populations of humans and mice at various stages of their development is qualitatively commented on from the standpoint of comparative tension according to G. Selye. To assess the degree of aging of a biological object of one population in kinetic theory, the probability of death during life is selected as an indicator of aging. In this work, the probability of reaching the maximum population size was chosen as an indicator of the aging of a biological object of various populations. The published literature predicts various options for changing the population after reaching a maximum - maintaining the reached maximum level and decreasing to a certain limit, less than the maximum achieved. In this paper, based on an analysis of its results and an analogy with the complete degeneration of mice in the “mouse paradise” experiment, a conclusion is drawn about a hypothetically possible third variant of the limiting decrease in the population - its complete degeneration.

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A Model of Population Change Based on The Kinetic Theory of Aging of Living Systems.

2020

sphrj

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The possibility of applying the kinetic theory of aging of biological species published earlier by the authors of this work to assess and predict changes in the number of specific populations is evaluated. The populations of the USA, China and Russia, as well as the population of mice observed in the experiment "mouse paradise" of the American scientist John Calhoun are considered. To this end, a historically consistent analysis of the main previously proposed multi-scenario mathematical models describing demographic data and predicting the dynamics of the population was performed. The results of these models show a decrease in the population growth rate, a tendency toward a limit with an increase in historical time, the achievement of such a limit in some developed countries with a relatively high level of social security, a subsequent decrease in the number and further uncertainty of the final population outlook in the distant future. In addition, these models made it possible to establish that the observed population growth in developed countries is unambiguously accompanied by its aging - a relative predominant increase in the number of elderly people compared to the number of the younger generation (people are aging, the population of countries is aging). In this work, the assumption was made and confirmed that the dynamics of the aging of the population of the countries of the World corresponds to the dynamics of aging of a person of one generation and is mathematically described by the differential equation of the kinetic theory of aging of living systems of the same type with close values of the parameters. The biophysical meaning of the parameters of the kinetic equation reflects G. Selye's concept of the determining role of stress in human life and populations. An analysis of the changes in the numbers of the considered populations of humans and mice at various stages of their development is qualitatively commented on from the standpoint of comparative tension according to G. Selye. To assess the degree of aging of a biological object of one population in kinetic theory, the probability of death during life is selected as an indicator of aging. In this work, the probability of reaching the maximum population size was chosen as an indicator of the aging of a biological object of various populations. The published literature predicts various options for changing the population after reaching a maximum - maintaining the reached maximum level and decreasing to a certain limit, less than the maximum achieved. In this paper, based on an analysis of its results and an analogy with the complete degeneration of mice in the “mouse paradise” experiment, a conclusion is drawn about a hypothetically possible third variant of the limiting decrease in the population - its complete degeneration.

show abstract

Kinetic Model of Aging Biological Species in Natural Habitat

Cited by 3 publications

References 6 publications

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Analysis and Forecast Based on the Kinetic Equation for Changing the Numerical Composition of Living Systems

A Model of Population Change Based on The Kinetic Theory of Aging of Living Systems.

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