Keynes and Econometrics: On the Interaction between the Macroeconomic Revolutions of the Interwar Period

Patinkin, Don

doi:10.2307/1914249

Cited by 157 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…These estimates were used to present government expenditure and revenue as part of a system of balanced tables describing the whole national economy. In this way, they became a tool in planning the British war economy (Stone, 1951, p. 84;Patinkin, 1976Patinkin, , p. 1109. A quote from Stone on his work during the war may illustrate this use:…”

Section: The Keynesian Revolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Trajectories of the Financial Sector Display in the System of National Accounts

Zadorozhna¹

2017

BTSNUKE

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Section: The Keynesian Revolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Trajectories of the Financial Sector Display in the System of National Accounts

Zadorozhna¹

2017

BTSNUKE

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“…The systematic and quantitative accounting view of economies was not developed until 1920s and 1930s pioneered by Colin Clark [10] and Simon Kuznets [11]. During the World War II, Richard Stone, who was a student of Colin Clark, worked with James Meade under the supervision of John Keynes [10] to create an accounting framework of how to pay for the war effort of the UK.…”

Section: Brief History Of Accounting Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the World War II, Richard Stone, who was a student of Colin Clark, worked with James Meade under the supervision of John Keynes [10] to create an accounting framework of how to pay for the war effort of the UK. The first national account for the UK was published 1941.…”

Section: Brief History Of Accounting Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Scientific Macroeconomic Model Derived from Fundamental Equation of Economics

Wayne

2014

SSRN Journal

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The poor performance of macroeconomic models during the great recession of 2008 has forced many economists to re-examine macroeconomic theories, and search for creditable alternatives to the popular dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. This paper derives a new macroeconomic model from recently published Fundamental Equation of Economics (FEOE) and applies the new model to answer a general question what causes economic crises. The macro model known as the indeterministic balance sheet plus (IBS+) model proposed in this paper for the first time turns out to be a special breed of accounting models. Different accounting models are more or less same in the way of handling empirical accounting data and flow of funds, and different in the way of forecasting the future. The IBS+ macroeconomic model takes the indeterministic view of the future balance sheets with the emphasis on probabilistic causalities, tail risks, economic reality described by balance sheet accounting, truthfully capturing the sectorial flow of funds and dynamics of economics, universally applicability, and a rock solid scientific theoretical foundation. The IBS+ model is very different from the popular dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based computational economic (ACE) models. Through a side by side comparison, we prove that IBS+ model is superior to DSGE or ACE models in many ways. This paper concludes that DSGE models are probably intellectual dead ends, and economists should stop investing heavily with DSGE models and instead should replace DSGE models with IBS+ models. Economic crises have plagued humanity since the dawn of capitalism. Despite intense studies over last several hundred years, the questions about causes, forecasting, and prevention of economic crises remains unsolved. This paper proposes a classification of causes of economic crises using IBS+ models to analyze balance sheets of key economic sectors. Applying this classification to examine recent economic crises, we conclude that most economic crises are caused by mismanagement of balance sheets by key economic players. This paper suggests that economic crises are largely caused by inevitable misbehavior of humanity and not caused by any fundamental flaw of capitalism. Just like improving the individual health and personal hygiene is the key to prevent epidemic diseases in societies, the key to prevent future economic crises is to promoting financial disciplines and strengthening risk management of key players in economics. Because some economic crises can be caused by natural and man-made factors beyond the scope of economics like earthquakes and wars, the frequency of economic crises can be minimized by proper risk management practices but economic crises can never be completely eliminated. Historically, treating mismanagement of balance sheets as main causes of economic crises is a generalization of Austrian business cycle theory, Fisher's debt deflation theory, and Minsky's financial instability hypothesis.

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“…Nor was Keynes criticizing eugenics, as Skidelsky (1983, 236) There was no missing eugenics in the case of Ronald Fisher, who became the great fi gure in postwar statistics, for it shaped both his career and personal life. Fisher was still at school when Keynes made his list but by 1911 he was an undergraduate and a member of the council of the Cambridge University Eugenics Society (see Box 1978, 26 Patinkin 1976 andStone 1978. It is time to consider the ideas of the early Keynes-the inference specialist.…”

Section: The Prospective Statisticianmentioning

confidence: 99%

Keynes among the Statisticians

Aldrich¹

2008

History of Political Economy

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Keynes and Econometrics: On the Interaction between the Macroeconomic Revolutions of the Interwar Period

Cited by 157 publications

References 30 publications

Historical Trajectories of the Financial Sector Display in the System of National Accounts

Historical Trajectories of the Financial Sector Display in the System of National Accounts

A Scientific Macroeconomic Model Derived from Fundamental Equation of Economics

Keynes among the Statisticians

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