Key challenges and meta-choices in designing and applying multi-criteria spatial decision support systems

Ferretti, Valentina; Montibeller, Gilberto

doi:10.1016/j.dss.2016.01.005

Cited by 103 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 70 publications

(106 reference statements)

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“…The situation is similar to that of multicriteria spatial decision support systems as described in Ref. 27. This article explores an approach that brings together the theory of spatial modeling and the decision-making framework of credit scoring by incorporating the dependency between small business failures/defaults into a credit scoring model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“Birds of a Feather” Fail Together: Exploring the Nature of Dependency in SME Defaults

2017

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This article studies the effects of incorporating the interdependence among London small business defaults into a risk analysis framework using the data just before the financial crisis. We propose an extension from standard scoring models to take into account the spatial dimensions and the demographic characteristics of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), such as legal form, industry sector, and number of employees. We estimate spatial probit models using different distance matrices based only on the spatial location or on an interaction between spatial locations and demographic characteristics. We find that the interdependence or contagion component defined on spatial and demographic characteristics is significant and that it improves the ability to predict defaults of non-start-ups in London. Furthermore, including contagion effects among SMEs alters the parameter estimates of risk determinants. The approach can be extended to other risk analysis applications where spatial risk may incorporate correlation based on other aspects.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“Birds of a Feather” Fail Together: Exploring the Nature of Dependency in SME Defaults

2017

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“…Decision making processes related to interventions on the territory are characterized by an integration of many tools, such as SWOT analysis, with the aim of creating synergies and feasibility for the definition of complex territorial policies [64,65]. In this context, this model of analysis is a process providing systemically accessible information on a specific theme, such as ASFOs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Consolidation Associations and the Management of Territories in Harsh Italian Environments: A Review

2018

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Abstract:Land fragmentation is a phenomenon that reduces the mechanical management of agricultural and grazing lands and, consequently, leads to the abandonment of agricultural practices in harsh environments. It puts the agricultural and/or agro-pastoral businesses in a difficult situation as they have small surfaces to manage that do not allow for sufficient profit. Some worldwide land consolidation initiatives have been set up to reduce this phenomenon, such as land funds. In this context, this paper is dedicated to an Italian approach, which can be carried over to other realities, aimed at safeguarding and managing territories in harsh environments. This approach, known as the "Associazione Fondiaria (ASFO)", which can be roughly translated as "land consolidation association", consolidates small portions of abandoned land in a functional manner. Indeed, a land consolidation association not only stimulates new entrepreneurial agricultural activities, but is also able to create employment in depressed areas. A SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis was used to evaluate ASFOs, and their peculiarities were discussed.

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“…Environmental risks, such as climate change, natural hazards, and human‐driven environmental changes, to name the most relevant, pose major challenges for policy and decision‐making processes. These challenges encompass both social issues (managing participation and legitimation, ensuring accountability) and technical content, e.g., modeling multiple impacts with different spatial distributions, handling large amounts of heterogeneous data, assessing vulnerabilities, and dealing with multiple objectives, long‐time horizons, value tradeoffs, and uncertainties . These risks often have important spatial impacts, such as the conversion of natural ecosystems into anthropogenic ecosystems (like farmlands, pastures, and plantations), the spread of invasive species, the impoverishment of the agricultural soil, and the increased rate of erosion of coastal land, among many others …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integrated Framework for Environmental Multi‐Impact Spatial Risk Analysis

Ferretti

Montibeller

2017

Risk Analysis

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Quantitative risk analysis is being extensively employed to support policymakers and provides a strong conceptual framework for evaluating decision alternatives under uncertainty. Many problems involving environmental risks are, however, of a spatial nature, i.e., containing spatial impacts, spatial vulnerabilities, and spatial risk-mitigation alternatives. Recent developments in multicriteria spatial analysis have enabled the assessment and aggregation of multiple impacts, supporting policymakers in spatial evaluation problems. However, recent attempts to conduct spatial multicriteria risk analysis have generally been weakly conceptualized, without adequate roots in quantitative risk analysis. Moreover, assessments of spatial risk often neglect the multidimensional nature of spatial impacts (e.g., social, economic, human) that are typically occurring in such decision problems. The aim of this article is therefore to suggest a conceptual quantitative framework for environmental multicriteria spatial risk analysis based on expected multi-attribute utility theory. The framework proposes: (i) the formal assessment of multiple spatial impacts; (ii) the aggregation of these multiple spatial impacts; (iii) the assessment of spatial vulnerabilities and probabilities of occurrence of adverse events; (iv) the computation of spatial risks; (v) the assessment of spatial risk mitigation alternatives; and (vi) the design and comparison of spatial risk mitigation alternatives (e.g., reductions of vulnerabilities and/or impacts). We illustrate the use of the framework in practice with a case study based on a flood-prone area in northern Italy.

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Key challenges and meta-choices in designing and applying multi-criteria spatial decision support systems

Cited by 103 publications

References 70 publications

“Birds of a Feather” Fail Together: Exploring the Nature of Dependency in SME Defaults

“Birds of a Feather” Fail Together: Exploring the Nature of Dependency in SME Defaults

Land Consolidation Associations and the Management of Territories in Harsh Italian Environments: A Review

An Integrated Framework for Environmental Multi‐Impact Spatial Risk Analysis

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