Kemiskinan dan Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhinya di Indonesia

Abstract

Poverty alleviation in Indonesia is strongly influenced by other economic variables. The three main factors used to measure its effect on poverty are economic growth, unemployment and inflation. This study aims to examine and analyze the relationship between theoretical and empirical balance between economic growth, unemployment rate and inflation rate with poverty in Indonesia both in the short and long term. The estimation method used is a dynamic econometric model with the cointegration approach and the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the equation model used has cointegration relationships and long-term balance between variables. The estimation results show that there is a short-term effect of economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation on poverty, while in the long term economic growth and the unemployment rate have a significant effect, while inflation is not significant.

The GRDP per capita, human development index, open unemployment rate, regional expenditure, and poverty in East Java Province

“…The choice of ECM aimed to prevent spurious regression, which indicates that research variables do not relate to one another, even though the regression results produce sizable coefficients and a high coefficient of determination (Ekananda, 2014). Numerous prior investigations have demonstrated that this methodology is suitable for examining how independent and dependent variables are related to one another over both in the short and long terms (Payapo et al, 2023;Setiadi & Mafruhat, 2023;Wau, 2022). Therefore, to avoid spurious regression between variables in the model, ECM analysis was conducted based on the cointegration test to observe the influence in the short and long run.…”