K-SEIR-Sim: A simple customized software for simulating the spread of infectious diseases

Wang, Hongzhi; Miao, Zhiying; Zhang, Chaobao; Wang, Xiaona; Li, Xiangqi

doi:10.1016/j.csbj.2021.04.004

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Development of the Locally Run Software SEIP-RA: Initially, we developed the K-SEIR-Sim software ( 7 ), followed by its enhancement through the creation of the SEIR-AS software ( 2 ). Here, we designed an improved software, SEIP-RA, which focuses on pinpointing high-risk populations.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collective and Individual Assessment of the Risk of Death from COVID-19 for the Elderly, 2020–2022

et al. 2023

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Introduction Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had profound disruptions worldwide. For a population or individual, it is critical to assess the risk of death for making preventative decisions. Methods In this study, clinical data from approximately 100 million cases were statistically analyzed. A software and an online assessment tool were developed in Python to evaluate the risk of mortality. Results Our analysis revealed that 76.51% of COVID-19-related fatalities occurred among individuals aged over 65 years, with frailty-associated deaths accounting for more than 80% of these cases. Furthermore, over 80% of the reported deaths involved unvaccinated individuals. A notable overlap was observed between aging and frailty-associated deaths, both of which were connected to underlying health conditions. For those with at least two comorbidities, the proportion of frailty and the proportion of COVID-19-related death were both close to 75 percent. Subsequently, we established a formula to calculate the number of deaths, which was validated using data from twenty countries and regions. Using this formula, we developed and verified an intelligent software designed to predict the death risk for a given population. To facilitate rapid risk screening on an individual level, we also introduced a six-question online assessment tool. Conclusions This study examined the impact of underlying diseases, frailty, age, and vaccination history on COVID-19-related mortality, resulting in a sophisticated software and a user-friendly online scale to assess mortality risk. These tools offer valuable assistance in informed decision-making.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collective and Individual Assessment of the Risk of Death from COVID-19 for the Elderly, 2020–2022

et al. 2023

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“…In a sense, the COVID-19 crisis offers a historic opportunity for the development of artificial intelligence in epidemiological research ( Xiao et al., 2021 ). We previously adopted the SEIR model to simulate viral transmissibility and developed the K-SEIR software ( Wang, H. et al., 2021 ). However, K-SEIR software could not simulate the asymptomatic spread.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymptomatic Transmissibility Calls for Implementing a Zero-COVID Strategy to End the Current Global Crisis

Zhang

Wang

Zhu

et al. 2022

Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol.

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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges. A zero-COVID strategy is needed to end the crisis, but there is a lack of biological evidence. In the present study, we collected available data on SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 to perform a comprehensive comparative analysis and visualization. The study results revealed that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is low, whereas its death toll is high compared to SARS and MERS. Moreover, COVID-19 had a higher asymptomatic rate. In particular, COVID-19 exhibited unique asymptomatic transmissibility. Further, we developed a foolproof operating software in Python language to simulate COVID-19 spread in Wuhan, showing that the cumulative cases of existing asymptomatic spread would be over 100 times higher than that of only symptomatic spread. This confirmed the essential role of asymptomatic transmissibility in the uncontrolled global spread of COVID-19, which enables the necessity of implementing the zero-COVID policy. In conclusion, we revealed the triggering role of the asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID-19 in this unprecedented global crisis, which offers support to the zero-COVID strategy against the recurring COVID-19 spread.

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“…Wang, Miao and Zhang, developed a simple operational software based on the improved K-SEIR model, called the Kernel SEIR simulator (K-SEIR-sim). Then the applicability of the proposed software is demonstrated with examples [21]. An n-patch SEIR epidemic model of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was presented in [22].…”

Section: Epidemic Dynamical Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term prediction of the COVID-19 epidemics induced by Omicron-virus in China based on a novel non-autonomous delayed SIR model

Pei

Liu

2023

J. Phys. A: Math. Theor.

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Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the severe acute respiratory syndromecoronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome is still mutating. Omicron, a recently emergingvirus with a shorter incubation period, faster transmission speed, and stronger immuneescape ability, is soaring worldwide and becoming the mainstream virus in the COVID-19 pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, andeconomic sectors to have an accurate estimate of the trend of this disaster. Byusing different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infectedrecovered (SIR) model and its extensions, many investigators have tried to predict theoutbreaks of COVID-19. In this study, we employed a novel model which is basedupon the well-known susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with the time-delayand time-varying coefficients in our previous works. We aim to predict the evolutionof the epidemics effectively in nine cities and provinces of China, including A City, BCity, C City, D City, E City, F City, G City, H City and I Province. The resultsshow it is effective to model the spread of the large-scale and sporadic COVID-19 induced by Omicron virus (Omicron-COVID-19) by the novel non-autonomousdelayed SIR compartment model. The significance of this study is that it canprovide the management department of epidemic control with theoretical referencesand subsequent evaluation of the prevention, control measures, and effects.

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K-SEIR-Sim: A simple customized software for simulating the spread of infectious diseases

Abstract: Graphical abstract

Cited by 6 publications

References 28 publications

Collective and Individual Assessment of the Risk of Death from COVID-19 for the Elderly, 2020–2022

Collective and Individual Assessment of the Risk of Death from COVID-19 for the Elderly, 2020–2022

Asymptomatic Transmissibility Calls for Implementing a Zero-COVID Strategy to End the Current Global Crisis

Long-term prediction of the COVID-19 epidemics induced by Omicron-virus in China based on a novel non-autonomous delayed SIR model

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