June 2023 marine heatwave over the Northwest European shelf: origins, weather feedback and future recurrence

Berthou, Ségolène; Renshaw, Richard; Smyth, Tim; Tinker, Jonathan; Grist, Jeremy; Wihsgott, Juliane; Jones, Sam; Inall, Mark; Nolan, Glenn; Arnold, Alex; Castillo, Juan Manuel; Blunn, Lewis; Gomez, Breogan; Leonhardt, Vivian Fraser; Hirschi, Joel J-M; Lewis, Huw; Mahmood, Sana; Worsford, Mark

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3417023/v1

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Products providing information about water quality and ocean health are also used, as are longer-term climate projections. Examples include spatial maps of oxygen deficient areas from Ciavatta et al (2016), which were included in an OSPAR assessment report on good environmental status (https://oap.ospar.org/en/ospar-assessments/quality-statusreports/), and analysis of trends in marine heatwaves by Berthou et al (2024).…”

Section: End-user Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Marine data assimilation in the UK: the past, the present and the vision for the future

Skakala,

Ford,

Haines

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. In the last two decades UK research institutes have led a wide range of developments in marine data assimilation (MDA), covering areas from the MDA applications in physics and biogeochemistry, to MDA theory. We review the progress over this period and formulate our MDA vision for both the short-term and the longer-term future. We focus on identifying the MDA stakeholder community and current/future areas of impact, as well as the current trends and the future opportunities. This includes rapid growth of machine learning (ML) / artificial intelligence (AI) and digital twin applications. We articulate the MDA needs for future types of observational data (whether planned missions, or hypothetical) and what should be the response of the MDA community to the increase in computational power and new computer architectures (e.g. exascale computing). Although the specifics depend on the MDA area, we advocate for balanced redistribution of the new computational capability among increased model resolution, model complexity, more sophisticated DA algorithms and uncertainty representation (e.g. ensembles). We also advocate for integrated approaches, such as strongly coupled DA (ocean/atmosphere, physics/biogeochemistry, ocean/sea ice) and the use of ML/AI components (e.g. for multivariate increment balancing, bias-correction, model emulation, observation re-gridding, or fusion).

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Section: End-user Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Marine data assimilation in the UK: the past, the present and the vision for the future

Skakala,

Ford,

Haines

et al. 2024

Preprint

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show abstract

“…A severe marine heatwave was declared in mid-June, which further amplified temperatures over the UK land. This may have contributed a 0.6 C increase in the UK mean temperature for June (Berthou et al, 2023). Figures 73 and 74 show monthly UK air temperature over land and near-coast SST averaged over the most recent decade 2014-2023 as actuals and anomalies relative to the 1961-1990 monthly average.…”

Section: Record Warm Junementioning

confidence: 99%

State of the UK Climate 2023

Kendon,

Doherty,

Hollis

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Predictability of marine heatwaves: assessment based on the ECMWF seasonal forecast system

de Boisséson,

Balmaseda

2024

Ocean Sci.

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Abstract. Marine heatwaves (MHWs), defined as prolonged period of extremely warm sea surface temperature (SST), have been receiving a lot of attention in the past decade as their frequency and intensity increase in a warming climate. This paper investigates the extent to which the seasonal occurrence and duration of MHWs can be predicted with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) operational seasonal forecast system. The prediction of the occurrence of MHW events, the number of MHW days per season, and their intensity and spatial extent are derived from seasonal SST forecasts and evaluated against an observation-based SST analysis using both deterministic and probabilistic metrics over the 1982–2021 period. Forecast scores show useful skill in predicting the occurrence of MHWs globally for the two seasons following the starting date. The skill is the highest in the El Niño region, the Caribbean, the wider tropics, the north-eastern extra-tropical Pacific, and southwest of the extra-tropical basins. The skill is not as good for other midlatitude eastern basins nor for the Mediterranean, with the forecast system being able to represent the low-frequency modulation of MHWs but showing poor skill in predicting the interannual variability of the MHW characteristics. Linear trend analysis shows an increase in MHW occurrence at a global scale, which the forecasts capture well.

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June 2023 marine heatwave over the Northwest European shelf: origins, weather feedback and future recurrence

Cited by 3 publications

References 26 publications

Marine data assimilation in the UK: the past, the present and the vision for the future

Marine data assimilation in the UK: the past, the present and the vision for the future

State of the UK Climate 2023

Predictability of marine heatwaves: assessment based on the ECMWF seasonal forecast system

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