Jumping to conclusions: Implications for reasoning errors, false belief, knowledge corruption, and impeded learning.

Abstract

In schizophrenia research, patients who “jump to conclusions” in probabilistic reasoning tasks tend to display impaired decision-making and delusional belief. In five studies, we examined whether jumping to conclusions (JTC) was similarly associated with decision impairments in a nonclinical sample, such as reasoning errors, false belief, overconfidence, and diminished learning. In Studies 1a and 1b, JTC was associated with errors stimulated by automatic reasoning, oddball beliefs such as conspiracy theories, and overconfidence. We traced these deficits to an absence of controlled processing rather than to an undue impact of automatic thinking, while ruling out roles for plausible alternative individual differences. In Studies 2 and 3, JTC was associated with higher confidence despite diminished performance in a novel probabilistic learning task (i.e., diagnosing illnesses), in part because those who exhibited JTC behavior were prone to overly exuberant theorizing, with no or little data, about how to approach the task early on. In Study 4, we adapted intervention materials used in schizophrenia treatment to train participants to avoid JCT. The intervention quelled overconfidence in the probabilistic learning task. In summary, this research suggests that a fruitful crosstalk may exist between research on psychopathology and work on social cognition within the general public.

Willingness to vaccinate against SARS-CoV-2: The role of reasoning biases and conspiracist ideation

“…Belief in SARS-CoV-2 conspiracy theories was also (positively) associated with several reasoning biases, including illusory pattern perception and denominator neglect. While these biases were not identified as possible causes of conspiracist ideation by GFCI, previous literature providing evidence of a causal relation between these variables [47] , [56] , [62] suggests that additional exploration of the role of these biases may be warranted. Belief in SARS-COV-2 conspiracy theories was also positively associated with persecutory ideation (which GFCI suggested was causally upstream of belief in conspiracy theories) and negatively associated with epistemic trust in scientists (which GFCI suggested was reduced by belief in SARS-CoV-2 conspiracy theories).…”

“…Thus, in three cases Urn B had more red balls (a higher numerator) but offered poorer odds of winning than Urn A. As in previous work [47] , denominator neglect was calculated by averaging participants’ preference ratings across these three cases. Scores range from 1 to 7.…”

“…Reasoning biases may also facilitate conspiracist ideation. Conspiracist ideation is correlated with several biases, including the tendency to gather less data prior to decision-making (“jumping to conclusions”; [44] , [47] and the tendency toward lowered decision thresholds (“liberal acceptance”; [28] , both of which are thought to cause epistemically-suspect beliefs (see: [6] . Manipulating particular reasoning biases, such as the tendency to perceive patterns in data when none are present (“illusory pattern perception”), increases conspiracist ideation [62] .…”

Functional outcomes and subjective recovery of jumping to conclusions in schizophrenia

“…Considering JTC, there may be a negative relationship between functional outcomes and recovery. Such conflicting relationships may be related to subjective overestimation ( Sanchez and Dunning, 2020 ). For instance, the person with schizophrenia is prone to over- or underestimation ( Silberstein et al, 2018 ; Silberstein and Harvey, 2019 ).…”

COVID-19 dimensions and psychotic experiences among US college students: Findings from the Healthy Mind Study 2020

“…The pandemic has also appeared to have given rise to unusual beliefs regarding the origins of COVID-19, sometimes referred to as “conspiracy theories,” which have been identified as a potential coping mechanism ( Fountoulakis et al, 2020 ). It has been hypothesized that such beliefs may lie on the psychosis continuum, and may be rooted in similar errors in cognitive processes ( Freeman, 2007 ; Sanchez and Dunning, 2020 ). However, there have been few large-scale studies to examine the wide range of COVID-19 dimensions and their effects on psychotic experiences.…”