Judging Judge Fixed Effects

Frandsen, Brigham R.; Lefgren, Lars; Leslie, Emily

doi:10.3386/w25528

Cited by 46 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…A.1.3 Average Monotonicity (Frandsen et al 2019) We finally consider how Condition A.1 relates to "average monotonicity" in Frandsen et al (2019).…”

Section: A12 Consistency Of the Estimatormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Monotonicity can thus only hold if all agents have the same skill. Our empirical insight that we can test and quantify violations of monotonicity (or variation in skill) relates to conceptual work that exploits bounds on potential outcome distributions (Kitagawa 2015) and more recent work to test instrument validity in the judges design (Frandsen et al 2019) and…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Selection with Variation in Diagnostic Skill: Evidence from Radiologists

Chan¹,

Gentzkow²,

Yu³

2019

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Physicians, judges, teachers, and agents in many other settings differ systematically in the decisions they make when faced with similar cases. Standard approaches to interpreting and exploiting such differences assume they arise solely from variation in preferences. We develop an alternative framework that allows variation in both preferences and diagnostic skill, and show that both dimensions are identified in standard settings under quasi-random assignment. We apply this framework to study pneumonia diagnoses by radiologists. Diagnosis rates vary widely among radiologists, and descriptive evidence suggests that a large component of this variation is due to differences in diagnostic skill. Our estimated model suggests that radiologists view failing to diagnose a patient with pneumonia as more costly than incorrectly diagnosing one without, and that this leads less-skilled radiologists to optimally choose lower diagnosis thresholds. Variation in skill can explain 44 percent of the variation in diagnostic decisions, and policies that improve skill perform better than uniform decision guidelines. Failing to account for skill variation can lead to highly misleading results in research designs that use agent assignments as instruments.

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“…A.1.3 Average Monotonicity (Frandsen et al 2019) We finally consider how Condition A.1 relates to "average monotonicity" in Frandsen et al (2019).…”

Section: A12 Consistency Of the Estimatormentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selection with Variation in Diagnostic Skill: Evidence from Radiologists

Chan¹,

Gentzkow²,

Yu³

2019

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“…The monotonicity assumption is strong in this setting, as judges may treat cases differently depending on the characteristics of the defendant (e.g., men versus women) or crime (e.g., property versus violent crimes). Recent work argues that the monotonicity assumption is therefore unlikely to hold exactly in judge-IV designs, but that these IV estimates can still identify a convex combination of treatment effects under a weaker assumption of average monotonicity (Frandsen, Lefgren and Leslie 2019). An implication of this weaker average monotonicity assumption is that the first stage estimates should be nonnegative for all subsamples.…”

Section: Instrumental Variable Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration

Dobbie¹,

Grönqvist²,

Niknami³

et al. 2019

SSRN Journal

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We estimate the causal effects of parental incarceration on children's short-and long-run outcomes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous variation in parental incarceration from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that the incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to a significant increase in teen crime and significant decreases in educational attainment and adult employment. The effects are concentrated among children from the most disadvantaged families, where criminal convictions increase by 10 percentage points, high school graduation decreases by 25 percentage points, and employment at age 25 decreases by 29 percentage points. In contrast, there are no detectable effects among children from more advantaged families. These results suggest that the incarceration of parents with young children may significantly increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behavior, even in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets.

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“…A limitation to this state-wide analysis is that we do not have detailed information about how 24/7 was implemented in each county, nor do we know whether officials tasked with the decision to assign candidates to 24/7 are truly monotonic as assumed. Recent research suggests this common assumption may be tenuous (Frandsen, Lefgren, and Leslie 2019). Similarly, we do not have information about whether counties changed how they addressed those who did not participate in 24/7 during our study period (e.g., were counties more likely to assign these individuals to treatment for a substance use disorder).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Using Certainty and Celerity to Deter Crime

Kilmer¹,

Midgette²

2019

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R® is a registered trademark Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution atWhether a sanction will deter criminal behavior is a function of three elements: certainty, severity and celerity. Modern punishment policy has disproportionately focused on ratcheting up sanction severity in order to induce deterrence. Policymakers now increasingly look to policies that increase the certainty and celerity of punishment as an alternative to the high costs of more severe sanctions. South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program is a novel, large-scale intervention requiring those arrested for or convicted of an alcohol-related offense to be tested for alcohol abstention compliance multiple times daily. Failing or missing a test results in a swift, certain, and moderate sanction. To estimate the causal effect of 24/7 on the probability of rearrest or probation revocation, we instrument for individual participation using program availability in the county of arrest. Results show that the probability of rearrest or probation revocation is 49 percent lower (p=0.002) for 24/7 participants than non-participants 12 months after their initial DUI arrest, and we detect substantive effects at 24 and 36 months, though the precision depends on the model specification. These findings provide evidence that it is possible to create a credible and effective deterrent threat on a large scale by prioritizing sanction certainty and celerity.

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Judging Judge Fixed Effects

Cited by 46 publications

References 19 publications

Selection with Variation in Diagnostic Skill: Evidence from Radiologists

Selection with Variation in Diagnostic Skill: Evidence from Radiologists

The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration

Using Certainty and Celerity to Deter Crime

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