Joint climate–hydrology modeling: an impact study for the data-sparse environment of the Volta Basin in West Africa

Jung, Gerlinde; Wagner, Sven; Kunstmann, Harald

doi:10.2166/nh.2012.044

Cited by 46 publications

(37 citation statements)

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“…By the end of this century, the magnitude of frequent floods (with return periods less than 10 years) is projected to decrease in the Volta River, whereas the trend for higher return period floods (i.e., more extreme) is not consistent from station to station. Moreover, Jung et al (2012) and Kunstmann and Jung (2005) found an increase in runoff in September, when flows in the Volta are typically the highest (Fig. 1b).…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Change On Intra-annual Variability and Exmentioning

confidence: 76%

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Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review

Roudier

Ducharne

Feyen

2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

142

104

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Abstract. This review summarizes the impacts of climate change on runoff in West Africa, assesses the uncertainty in the projections and describes future research needs for the region. To do so, we constitute a meta-database made of 19 studies and 301 future runoff change values. The future tendency in streamflow developments is overall very uncertain (median of the 301 points is 0 % and mean +5.2 %), except for (i) the Gambia River, which exhibits a significant negative change (median = −4.5 %), and (ii) the Sassandra and the Niger rivers, where the change is positive (+14.4 % and +6.1 %). A correlation analysis revealed that runoff changes are tightly linked to changes in rainfall (R = 0.49), and to a smaller extent also to changes in potential evapotranspiration. Other parameters than climate -such as the carbon effect on plant water efficiency, land use dynamics or water withdrawals -could also significantly impact on runoff, but they generally do not offset the effects of climate change. In view of the potential changes, the large uncertainty therein and the high vulnerability of the region to such changes, there is an urgent need for integrated studies that quantify the potential effects of these processes on water resources in West Africa and for more accuracy in climate models rainfall projections. We especially underline the lack of information concerning projections of future floods and droughts, and of interannual fluctuations in streamflow.

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Section: Impacts Of Climate Change On Intra-annual Variability and Exmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…-Streamflow increases in Sep-Oct (around 20 %), decrease in Jul-Aug (about −10 %) (Jung et al, 2012).…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Change On Intra-annual Variability and Exmentioning

confidence: 96%

Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review

Roudier

Ducharne

Feyen

2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

142

104

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“…In this respect, the model is distinguished from other models by placing emphasis on a balance between scientific and non-scientific knowledge sources (PetschelHeld et al 2005;Perera et al, 2012). Further, the model is not purely a physically based hydrologic model as in numerous developed models in the basin (e.g., de Condappa et al, 2008), Leemhuis et al, 2009;Jung et al, 2012;Amisigo et al, 2015;Awotwi et al, 2015), neither is it an exclusively socio-economic model. Rather, it is a coupled population-economic-hydrologic dynamic model.…”

Section: Research Aim and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Groundwater flow to rivers in the basin is assumed to be insignificant, because mean monthly evapotranspiration exceeds mean monthly rainfall for most of the year for the entire basin (Jung et al, 2012). As a result, its current usage in the basin is very low, although this is likely to increase (Jäger and Menge, 2012;UNEP-GEF Volta Project, 2013).…”

Section: 22 Water Resources Sub-sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

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Systems thinking and modelling for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, West Africa

Kotir¹

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It is well established that the conventional approaches to understanding and managing natural resource systems such as the traditional linear-reductionist and mechanistic approach founded on a positivistic understanding of science do not provide a sufficient framework for understanding the dynamic complexity and growing uncertainties inherent in most environmental systems. Dynamic complexity arises because such systems are: tightly coupled (components or drivers of the system interact with one another); governed by feedback; nonlinear; history dependent (making a choice precludes other options and determines the destiny); adaptive (decision rules change over time); counterintuitive (cause and effect are distant in time and space); and policy resistant. Despite the recognition of these complexities, there is still a lack of dynamic models that adequately integrate various physical, social, and economic factors and feedback processes that determine the current and future dynamics of most Social-ecological systems such as water resources management systems. There is, therefore, the need for an integrated system dynamics simulation model that adequately captures the non-linear interactions and feedback effects between the key system drivers to improve our understanding of the dynamic behaviour of water resource systems and evaluate the effects of different policy and management scenarios.The overall aim of this research was to develop computer-based integrated conceptual, dynamic and simulation models that can be used to support decision-making for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin in West Africa. To this end, a systems-based/systems thinking approach was used as the theoretical framework. Systems dynamics approach grounded in the relativistic, holistic/pragmatist philosophical or methodological paradigm provided an appropriate modelling tool to capture the relationships between the key system variables and their dynamic behaviour over time. Overall, a three-tied research plan (mixed methods approach) was employed. A comprehensive literature review, structured expert judgement/surveys and interviews were used to explore and identify the key system drivers, factors, and processes that influence the sustainability of the river basin system. A participatory modelling approach was employed where the system expert stakeholders from academia, NGOs, government, and private consultants were engaged in developing an integrated qualitative conceptual model that described the causal systemic feedback processes operating between the biophysical, environmental, and socio-economic drivers of the system. Based on the conceptual model, a formal quantitative simulation model was then developed using a system dynamics simulation approach, allowing different policy scenarios and strategies to be identified and tested. Besides the baseline or business as usual scenario, three additional policy scenarios were designed and simulated to explore ii alternative futures, incl...

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High‐resolution simulated water balance and streamflow data set for 1951–2020 for the territory of Poland

Marcinkowski

Kardel

Płaczkowska

et al. 2022

Geoscience Data Journal

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Long‐term simulated water balance and streamflow data for the territory of Poland with high spatio‐temporal resolution were reconstructed for the period 1951–2020 with a daily time step, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The spatial structure includes 4,381 sub‐basins and 47,725 hydrological response units. The SWAT model was extensively calibrated and validated following a two‐stage, multi‐site calibration method for 88 gauging stations across Poland. The simulations show satisfactory performance with a median Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.73 and 0.7 in the calibration and validation period respectively. The model performance exceeded that of its predecessor, the SWAT model of the Vistula and Odra basins. The simulated hydrological data set covers daily water balance components at the sub‐basin level, including precipitation total, snowfall, snowmelt, evapotranspiration (actual and potential), surface runoff, soil water, percolation, groundwater recharge, groundwater flow, tile flow and water yield (all components in mm), and daily streamflow (m3/s) at the reach level. The data set is stored in an online, publicly available research data archive 4TU.Research Data (Marcinkowski, P., Kardel, I., Płaczkowska, E., Giełczewski, M., Osuch, P., Okruszko, T., Venegas‐Cordero, N., Ignar, S. & Piniewski, M (2021). PL‐SWAT‐51_20: a high‐resolution simulated water balance and streamflow data set for 1951‐2020 for the territory of Poland, 4TU.ResearchData. dataset, https://doi.org/10.4121/16843183).

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Joint climate–hydrology modeling: an impact study for the data-sparse environment of the Volta Basin in West Africa

Cited by 46 publications

References 0 publications

Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review

Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review

Systems thinking and modelling for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, West Africa

High‐resolution simulated water balance and streamflow data set for 1951–2020 for the territory of Poland

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