Joinpoint Regression Analysis of Female Breast Cancer Mortality in Serbia 1991–2010

Abstract

The aim of this descriptive epidemiologic study was to analyze the mortality trends of female breast cancer in Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Metohia) from 1991 to 2010. Average annual percentage of change and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed for trend using linear models assuming a Poisson distribution. The Serbian female population showed an increase in breast cancer mortality continuously from 1991 to 2010 (average annual percentage of change = + 0.9, 95% CI = 0.6-1.1). Breast cancer mortality declined in women aged 30-49 years but increased in women ≥50 years old. Decline in breast cancer mortality in young women was observed during the entire period and was significant in those 35-49 years old. In women 50-54 years old, a significant increase in breast cancer mortality during the period 1991-1997 was followed by significant decrease until 2010. In all older age groups, mortality rates significantly increased during all periods observed. The only exception was among women aged 65-69 years old in whom a small, non-significant decrease in breast cancer mortality was observed in the period 1991-1998, followed by significant increase until 2010. According to a comparability test, breast cancer mortality trends in 30-49, 50-69, and 70+ year age groups differed significantly (p < 0.01).