Job Security and Fertility: Evidence from German Reunification

Abstract

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The Causal Effect of Financial Crisis and Its Long‐Run Impact on Fertility

“…Job displacement lowers fertility by 5-10 per cent, and the results are driven by women in more skilled occupations. By contrast, using the introduction of civilservant systems to East Germany after reunification as an exogenous shift in employment risks, Klemm (2012) fails to find a positive causal relationship between being a civil servant and the probability of conception. 3 One paper closely related to this study is by Comolli and Bernardi (2015), who examine the causal effect of the 2008 financial crisis on the probability of childlessness for white American women.…”

“…Job displacement lowers fertility by 5–10 per cent, and the results are driven by women in more skilled occupations. By contrast, using the introduction of civil‐servant systems to East Germany after reunification as an exogenous shift in employment risks, Klemm (2012) fails to find a positive causal relationship between being a civil servant and the probability of conception.…”

“…5 Moreover, changing jobs from the private to the public sector is difficult because of the low pass rate in the Civil Service Examination, averaging 6 per cent over the past 20 years. Data from the 3 Although Klemm (2012) finds that women becoming civil servants (greater job security) are more likely to give birth, this effect is greater for civil servants in West Germany. This indicates that self-selection into civil-service jobs drives much of the results.…”