Jaguars Guaranteed? Governance of wildlife sighting in unpredictable environments

Abstract

Wildlife observation plays a crucial role in biodiversity conservation, community well-being, and economic development. However, achieving a balance between financial sustainability and species protection is normally a major challenge, especially in areas where wildlife observation is rare and unpredictable. In this paper, we present a theoretical and a simple mathematical model based on a recent development of property theory, pointing out a possible pathway for the long-term sustainability of wildlife observation. We illustrate the model with the case study of jaguar ecotourism in the Pantanal wetland. Our model is based on the quality of tourists' experience, predictability of the resource, and the governance strategies around it. We argue that different levels of unpredictability may require different governance structures. For instance, while resources are unpredictable, users would need mobility and cooperate on information sharing. When resources display a rather predictable pattern, users would need to impose clear boundaries on access and use. The case study from the Pantanal clearly illustrates these patterns, which have seen different levels of predictability and strategies around access to and use of natural resources. Our paper provides a new way of looking at the long-term sustainability of wildlife observation, especially in cases where resources are unpredictable.