Italian validation of the Manchester Triage System towards short-term mortality: a prospective observational study

Abstract

The study aimed to validate the Manchester Triage System in a hospital setting using data for short- and medium-term death rates. A prospective observational study was conducted at the Emergency Department of Merano Hospital for two years. The discriminatory ability of MTS was tested using AUROCs and contingency tables, reporting sensitivity and specificity levels for each study outcome. A total of 98,443 patients were enrolled, 237 of whom died within 72h; 422 patients died within seven days, and 1025 died within 30 days. The MTS demonstrated excellent discriminatory ability, reporting AUROC values of 0.890 for death within 72h, 0.853 for death within seven days, and 0.781 for death within 30 days. A sensitivity of 87.7% and a specificity of 79.4% were reported for death at 72h, while a sensitivity of 69.6% and a specificity of 79.8% were reported for death at 30 days. The MTS has proven to be a good triage system capable of accurately identifying patients who are at risk of death in the short or medium term.