It's the mobility culture, stupid! Winter conditions strongly reduce bicycle usage in German cities, but not in Dutch ones

Abstract

Cycling is healthy, cheap, and environmentally sustainable, but these benefits remain unexploited if many people only cycle in summer but not in winter. Seasonal differences in cycling are small in Dutch cities but relatively large in German cities. This paper tests: is it because seasonal conditions are more moderate in the Netherlands or because German cyclists are more sensitive to temperature, rain, and daylight hours? After discussing how German culture mirrors and potentially perpetuates seasonal cycling patterns, I analyse around 335,000 trips from German and Dutch travel surveys enriched with city-level climate data. Results show that Germans react about twice as strongly to changes in temperature and daylight hours than the Dutch. This reveals untapped potential for year-round cycling in Germany, with its benefits for health, finances and sustainability: The barrier is not the natural environment, but people’s response to it, which could potentially change and be influenced by policy.