IT Risk Evaluation Model Using Risk Maps and Fuzzy Inference

Abstract

A risk evaluation model for IT projects using fuzzy inference is proposed. The knowledge base for fuzzy processes is built using a causal and cognitive map of risks. This map was specially developed for IT projects and takes into account the typical lifecycle and the risk taxonomy created by the Software Engineering Institute. The model was used to compute the technological risk of an e-testing project. This project was positioned on the middle level of the risk map, implying that the probability of encountering technological difficulties depends on the number of technologies used and their market maturity. A software system for validating the model was also developed.

Theoretical Count of Function Points for Non-Measurable Items

“…The complexity of the task is a linguistic variable assuming the fuzzy values "low", "average" and "high" 1 . In fact, fuzzy models are very useful in information technology such as those based on the creation of causal and cognitive maps of risks provided by experts experience (Bodea & Dascalu, 2010). We note that in present model the complexity is classified by the duration of the task.…”