IT Risk Evaluation Model Using Risk Maps and Fuzzy Inference

Abstract

A risk evaluation model for IT projects using fuzzy inference is proposed. The knowledge base for fuzzy processes is built using a causal and cognitive map of risks. This map was specially developed for IT projects and takes into account the typical lifecycle and the risk taxonomy created by the Software Engineering Institute. The model was used to compute the technological risk of an e-testing project. This project was positioned on the middle level of the risk map, implying that the probability of encountering technological difficulties depends on the number of technologies used and their market maturity. A software system for validating the model was also developed.

Theoretical Count of Function Points for Non-Measurable Items

“…The complexity of the task is a linguistic variable assuming the fuzzy values "low", "average" and "high" 1 . In fact, fuzzy models are very useful in information technology such as those based on the creation of causal and cognitive maps of risks provided by experts experience (Bodea & Dascalu, 2010). We note that in present model the complexity is classified by the duration of the task.…”

Management of public–private R&D projects in Higher Education: key trends and issues

“…Thus, typical uncertainty of R&D projects demands robust project risk management (Baccarini and Melville 2011). As an example, Bodea and Dascalu (2009) proposed a risk evaluation model for research projects supported by fuzzy inference. Although this might not be adequate for every project, proactive and robust risk management approaches should be implemented in all R&D initiatives.…”

Project-to-Organization Matching

“…As complexity and uncertainty in projects increase, using rules of thumb and intuition is no longer helpful, and is sometimes misleading. In this sense, the development of systematic project risk evaluation processes has received a growing attention (Mustafa & Al Bahar, 1991;Barki et al, 1993;Miller & Lessard, 2001;Bodea & Dascalu, 2010;Locatelli & Mancini, 2010).…”