<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> We present observation and model-based estimates of the changes in the direct shortwave effect of aerosols under clear-sky (SDRECS) from 2001 to 2015. Observation-based estimates are obtained from changes in the outgoing shortwave clear-sky radiation (Rsutcs) measured by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), accounting for the effect of variability in surface albedo, water vapor, and ozone. We find increases in SDRECS (i.e., less radiation scattered to space by aerosols) over Western Europe (0.7&#8211;1&#8201;W&#8201;m<sup>&#8722;2</sup>&#8201;dec<sup>&#8722;1</sup>) and the Eastern US (0.9&#8211;1.8&#8201;W&#8201;m<sup>&#8722;2</sup>&#8201;dec<sup>&#8722;1</sup>), decreases over India (&#8722;0.5&#8211;&#8201;&#8722;1.9&#8201;W&#8201;m<sup>&#8722;2</sup>&#8201;dec<sup>&#8722;1</sup>) and no significant change over Eastern China. Comparisons with the GFDL chemistry climate model AM3, driven by CMIP6 historical emissions, show that changes in SDRECS over Western Europe and the Eastern US are well captured, which largely reflects the mature understanding of the sulfate budget in these regions. In contrast, the model overestimates the trends in SDRECS over India and Eastern China. Over China, this bias can be partly attributed to the decline of SO<sub>2</sub> emissions after 2007, which is not captured by the CMIP6 emissions. In both India and Eastern China, we find much larger contributions of nitrate and black carbon to changes in SDRECS than in the US and Europe, which highlights the need to better constrain their precursors and chemistry. Globally, our model shows that changes in the all-sky aerosol direct forcing between 2001 and 2015 (+0.03&#8201;W&#8201;m<sup>&#8722;2</sup>) are dominated by black carbon (+0.12&#8201;W&#8201;m<sup>&#8722;2</sup>) with significant offsets from nitrate (&#8722;0.03&#8201;W&#8201;m<sup>&#8722;2</sup>) and sulfate (&#8722;0.03&#8201;W&#8201;m<sup>&#8722;2</sup>). Changes in the sulfate (+7&#8201;%) and nitrate (+60&#8201;%) all-sky direct forcing between 2001 and 2015 are only weakly related to changes in the emissions of their precursors (&#8722;12.5&#8201;% and 19&#8201;% for SO<sub>2</sub> and NH<sub>3</sub>, respectively), due mostly to chemical non linearities.</p>