Is Voting Contagious? Evidence from Two Field Experiments

Abstract

M embers of the same household share similar voting behaviors on average, but how much of this correlation can be attributed to the behavior of the other person in the household? Disentangling and isolating the unique effects of peer behavior, selection processes, and congruent interests is a challenge for all studies of interpersonal influence. This study proposes and utilizes a carefully designed placebo-controlled experimental protocol to overcome this identification problem. During a face-to-face canvassing experiment targeting households with two registered voters, residents who answered the door were exposed to either a Get Out the Vote message (treatment) or a recycling pitch (placebo). The turnout of the person in the household not answering the door allows for contagion to be measured. Both experiments find that 60% of the propensity to vote is passed onto the other member of the household. This finding suggests a mechanism by which civic participation norms are adopted and couples grow more similar over time.

Deterring or Displacing Electoral Irregularities? Spillover Effects of Observers in a Randomized Field Experiment in Ghana

“…We find evidence for such interference across spatial units, but also conclude that the spillovers are limited by geographical distance. Our work adds to the handful of recent studies in political science that have explicitly considered spillovers, such as Nickerson's (2008) experimental study of peer effects on turnout in an American election.…”

Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects from Randomized Experiments, with Application to the Optimal Planning of the Get-Out-the-Vote Campaign

“…But this assumption can be easily relaxed. If a voter's turnout decision depends on the treatment status of the other voters within the same household (Nickerson 2008), for example, then an analysis needs to be conducted at the household level.…”

Social Learning in Social Networks

“…Throughout the paper, we refer to the adoption of a new technology, but the model and results may apply equally to the diffusion of other behaviors that spread through social networks, such as smoking or political participation Nickerson, 2008 Second, agents do not take into account some information implicit in their neighbors' adoption decisions -for instance, that the neighbors of their neighbors have had positive experiences. This departure from complete rationality is a common modeling assumption in the social learning literature (e.g.…”

“…The spirit and techniques of our analysis are most similar to several recent papers which also 2 For a sampling of the empirical literature, see Coleman et al (1966); Burt (1987); Fowler (2007, 2008) ;Fowler and Christakis (2008) and Nickerson (2008). For theoretical explorations of network structure and diffusion, see Watts and Strogatz (1998);Newman et al (2000); Pastor-Satorras and Vespignani (2001a,b);Sander et al (2002); Jackson and Yariv (2005); Centola and Macy (2007); Jackson and Yariv (2007); Jackson and Rogers (2007) and López-Pintado (2008).…”