Is There an International Convergence in Defence Burdens? Some Initial Findings

Arvanitidis, Paschalis; Kollias, Christos; Anastasopoulos, Konstantinos

doi:10.1515/peps-2014-0030

Cited by 28 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Table is consistent with a recent theory that military expenditure shares of GDP converge over time for a similar cohort of countries (Arvanitidis et al., ; Lau et al., ). There is a marked greater degree of similarity among these ratios for NATO allies after 1990.…”

Section: Nato Alliance and Defense Spending And Burdenssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…This increase reversed around 2010 owing to US budget difficultiesi.e., US Congress actions to reduce the deficit. Table 2 is consistent with a recent theory that military expenditure shares of GDP converge over time for a similar cohort of countries (Arvanitidis et al, 2014;Lau et al, 2015). There is a marked greater degree of similarity among these ratios for NATO allies after 1990.…”

Section: Nato Alliance and Defense Spending And Burdenssupporting

confidence: 88%

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Military Expenditure Trends for 1960–2014 and What They Reveal

Sandler¹,

George²

2016

Global Policy

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The article uses newly available consistent military expenditure data for 1960-2014 to examine past and current global spending trends during and after the Cold War. We are particularly interested in the impact of the end of the Cold War the need for western allies to bolster their air and sea-based power projection. These regional changes also augment the required size of rapid deployment forces. Except for the US, France and the UK, western allies have not responded to these needs.

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Section: Nato Alliance and Defense Spending And Burdenssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Nato Alliance and Defense Spending And Burdenssupporting

confidence: 88%

Military Expenditure Trends for 1960–2014 and What They Reveal

Sandler¹,

George²

2016

Global Policy

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“…Apergis, Christou, and Hassapis (2013) examine the public expenditure convergence (including military expenditure) across EU countries. Arvanitidis, Kollias, and Anastasopoulos (2014) focus on the convergence of the national military burden. Although they find a convergence in military expenditure, their conclusion is inconclusive as the econometrics concerns raised in Equations (1) and (2).…”

Section: Military Expenditure Convergencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…While there is a developed literature on the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth and determinants of military expenditure, little is known about the convergence dynamics of a country's military expenditure to its rivals. To our knowledge, the only paper focusing on the convergence of military expenditure is Arvanitidis, Kollias, and Anastasopoulos (2014). By employing two widely used techniques (σ-convergence and β-convergence), they examine the military expenditure convergence over the period of 1989-2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Nonlinear Model of Military Expenditure Convergence: Evidence From Estar Nonlinear Unit Root Test

Lau

Demir

Bilgin

2015

Defence and Peace Economics

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The paper builds a model to empirically test military expenditure convergence in a nonlinear set up. We assert that country A chooses a military strategy of catching up with the military expenditure of its rivals, subject to public spending constraints on public investments, including health and education, leading to decrease in long-term economic welfare. This implies nonlinear convergence path: only when the military expenditure gap between countries reaches the threshold level, will it provide incentives to catch up with rival's military expenditures. We test this nonlinear catching up hypothesis for 37 countries spanning from 1988 to 2012. Results from individual nonlinear cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller (NCADF) regression indicate that 53% of countries converge to world's average military expenditure: where 39% of countries converge to Germany; 33% of countries converge to China; 22% of countries converge to the USA, and 11% of countries converge to Russia. Interestingly, USA does not exhibit nonlinear military expenditure convergence toward world's average level. For panel NCADF regression, the result suggests that on average, there is evidence for countries converging to USA's military expenditure at 10% significance level. For the convergence to the world's average, the statistical significance is at the 1% significance level.

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“…Convergence: For discussion, see Arvanitidis, Kollias, and Anastopoulos (2014). Two percent: NATO set a threshold, stating the its members each should spend at least two percent of GDP on military expenditure.…”

Section: Standard Source: See Smith (2009)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Military expenditure and economic growth in the European Union: Evidence from SIPRI’s extended dataset

Malizard¹

2016

EPSJ

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The aim of this article is to shed light on the fiscal consequences of economic growth in the EU15 countries by disentangling military and civilian government expenditure. T he economic crisis that began in the late 2000s has spurred economists to (re)evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of public sector spending. No consensus has emerged which makes it difficult to address policy options. For European countries, especially, estimating the influence of public expenditure is a major issue as many of them have reached public debt limits stipulated by Maastricht criterion. The subsequent fiscal consolidation then raised questions regarding the consequence of debt limits on current economic performance. The aim of this article is to provide empirical evidence of the long-run effect of public expenditure in the EU15 countries by comparing military and nonmilitary, civlian public expenditure. 1Military expenditure lies at the intersection of security needs and budgetary constraints: A rise in perceived threats should lead to a rise in military expenditure whereas bad economic conditions could have an adverse effect on military outlays. Recent trends in the EU15 show that following the fiscal consolidation policy, military expenditure fell by an average of 12.5 percent between 2010 and 2014, especially so in countries most severely affected by the economic crisis, i.e., Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. (Among the EU15, only Sweden showed a rise in military expenditure for the 2010-2014 period.) At the same time, the EU15 are facing increased threats: For instance, the attitude of Russia appears somewhat aggressive and generates uncertainties regarding Crimea, terrorists' attacks have taken place in Paris and elsewhere in Europe, and a number of European countries are involved in the international coalition against ISIS. The nature of many of these kinds of threats is more diffuse than before so that security issues raise challenges not yet fully taken into account by European defense strategy.

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Is There an International Convergence in Defence Burdens? Some Initial Findings

Cited by 28 publications

References 8 publications

Military Expenditure Trends for 1960–2014 and What They Reveal

Military Expenditure Trends for 1960–2014 and What They Reveal

A Nonlinear Model of Military Expenditure Convergence: Evidence From Estar Nonlinear Unit Root Test

Military expenditure and economic growth in the European Union: Evidence from SIPRI’s extended dataset

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