We analyze subglobal action to mitigate climate change with a consideration of recent advances in the theory of international trade. Subglobal action impacts emissions in unconstrained countries (carbon leakage) through international trade channels. Consequently, estimates of the efficacy of subglobal action, tariffs on embodied carbon, and the distribution of policy costs will be sensitive to the assumed structure of international trade. While most climate-policy models rely on an Armington (1969) structure of international trade, recent empirical evidence supports a new theory suggested by Melitz (2003). We find significant quantitative and qualitative differences when we consider the Melitz trade structure. These differences are important as an alternative, and arguably more plausible, representation of how trade and border adjustments interact with climate policy.
Keywords: Carbon leakage, New trade theory, Climate policy, Border adjustments.JEL codes: F12, F18, Q54, Q56. * This study was conducted as part of an Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) model comparison project. As a subgroup of EMF 24, the project included 12 modeling groups studying trade and competitiveness aspects of climate change policy, with a particular focus on border carbon adjustments. We are grateful for comments and suggestions offered by participants of the model comparison meetings held in Zürich and Oslo in 2011. We also acknowledge the support of ETH Zürich, the Colorado School of Mines, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group. Any errors or omissions remain the responsibility of the authors.