Is there a role for trade liberalization in mitigating the impacts of climate change on agriculture?

Dissanayake, Sumali; Mahadevan, Renuka; Asafu‐Adjaye, John

doi:10.1016/j.eap.2019.04.006

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Few studies have developed the economic model for South Asia under climate change, including Hertel et al (2010), Cai et al (2016), Dissanayake et al (2019) and Chalise et al (2017). These studies focus on climate change along with GDP and population growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food security in South Asia under climate change and economic policies

Sun

Alvi

2022

IJCCSM

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Purpose The first purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes on food security, welfare and GDP in South Asian countries. The second purpose is to assess the agricultural subsidies and South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) as policy responses to climate change. Design/methodology/approach The present study uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework and econometric approach in an integrated manner to examine the economic impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes in South Asian countries. An econometric model is used to identify the impact of climate change on cereal yields and CGE approach is used to assess the future effect of climate change through simulations. In this course, the econometric findings are applied to Multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project 10 and then the model is calibrated for future projection. Findings The results indicate that there is a decrease in cereals production because of climate change and eventually it increases the prices of cereals, decreases the local consumption and GDP and, as a result, causes a loss in welfare. Subsidies and SAFTA have been found to have no substantial impact on increasing food security in South Asia. Originality/value The present study uses the concept of food demand for all cereals in an integrated way and focuses on the fiscal and trade policy responses to climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food security in South Asia under climate change and economic policies

Sun

Alvi

2022

IJCCSM

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“…IAM is a comprehensive framework that evaluates the environment and its associated issues from a detailed viewpoint, utilizing all interdisciplinary scientific technicalities and modeling aptitudes, and all of it is used to aid the effective policy formulation and decision making (Laniak et al, 2013;Straatsma et al, 2020). In the past a few attempts have been made to develop an Economic Model for South Asia under the climate change by Hertel et al (2010), Cai et al (2016), Dissanayake et al (2019) Chalise et al (2017. These models focus on macroeconomic variable change along with climate such as GDP, population and prices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated assessment model for food security under climate change for South Asia

Alvi

Roson

Sartori

et al. 2021

Heliyon

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The present study develops an integrated assessment model (IAM) for food security under climate change for South Asia. For IAM, initially, an econometric model is estimated that identifies the impact of climate change on crop yields, using the historical relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the production of cereals. Subsequently, future projections have been collected for temperature and precipitation from climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the previous econometric model is applied to obtain the implied future cereal yields changes. Then, the yield variations are fed into a multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, calibrated to the GTAP 9 database, taking the form of decreases in factor-augmenting productivity of the grains sector. Further, the present study evaluates the effects of climate change on an individual South Asian country. The results indicate that change in climate decreases food production, increases food prices, decreases food consumption, and thus affects the welfare. Trade and fiscal policy responses are investigated to combat the problem of food security. It is revealed that these two policies fail to compensate climate change damage in all the selected South Asian countries.

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