Is there a link between the length of the solar cycle and Earth’s temperature?

Chatzistergos, Theodosios

doi:10.1007/s12210-022-01127-z

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 78 publications

(111 reference statements)

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“…At the team meetings, Pesnell represented the space-forecasting community, Van Driel-Gesztelyi served as rapporteur, and Kopp reviewed the "triad" results (see below) and mapped the path forward. This also led to considerations about the broader implications of the current upgrades of the long-term sunspot series, which go beyond the domain of solar physics (e.g., Chatzistergos, 2022).…”

Section: Summary Of Progressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recalibration of the Sunspot-Number: Status Report

et al. 2023

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We report progress on the ongoing recalibration of the Wolf sunspot number ($S_{\mathrm{N}}$ S N ) and group-sunspot number ($G_{\mathrm{N}}$ G N ) following the release of version 2.0 of $S_{\mathrm{N}}$ S N in 2015. This report constitutes both an update of the efforts reported in the 2016 Topical Issue of Solar Physics and a summary of work by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) International Team formed in 2017 to develop optimal $S_{\mathrm{N}}$ S N and $G_{\mathrm{N}}$ G N reconstruction methods while continuing to expand the historical sunspot-number database. Significant progress has been made on the database side while more work is needed to bring the various proposed $S_{\mathrm{N}}$ S N and (primarily) $G_{\mathrm{N}}$ G N reconstruction methods closer to maturity, after which the new reconstructions (or combinations thereof) can be compared with (a) “benchmark” expectations for any normalization scheme (e.g., a general increase in observer normalization factors going back in time), and (b) independent proxy data series such as F10.7 and the daily range of variations of Earth’s undisturbed magnetic field. New versions of the underlying databases for $S_{\mathrm{N}}$ S N and $G_{\mathrm{N}}$ G N will shortly become available for years through 2022 and we anticipate the release of the next versions of these two time series in 2024.

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Section: Summary Of Progressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recalibration of the Sunspot-Number: Status Report

et al. 2023

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“…Three of these studies agreed with C2021 that: (a) much of the long-term warming since the late 19th century could be explained in terms of changing solar activity and (b) the IPCC had substantially underestimated the solar contribution [17,18,22]. Two of the studies disagreed with C2021 and concluded that the solar contribution was very small [20,21]. The remaining study reached an intermediate conclusion, finding that TSI was the dominant climate driver up to 1960 but that afterward CO 2 appeared to dominate [19].…”

Section: Influence Of C2021's Findings On Recent Attribution Studiesmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Therefore, the concerns raised by C2021 were apparently not considered for AR6's attribution statement. Nonetheless, a number of recent global temperature attribution studies have explicitly considered different aspects of C2021 in their analysis [17][18][19][20][21][22].…”

Section: Influence Of C2021's Findings On Recent Attribution Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this article, we carry out a statistical attribution analysis of Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature time series using various combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings. We propose that much of the conflicting conclusions reached by the recent climate change attribution studies described above [1][2][3]5,[17][18][19][20][21][22] can be traced to differing choices on the two issues raised by C2021 [5], i.e. :…”

Section: Aims Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Chatzistergos (2023) [21] did not use any TSI series for his analysis. Instead, he confined his analysis to a particular solar activity proxy-the solar cycle length (SCL).…”

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confidence: 99%

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The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

Soon,

Connolly,

Connolly

et al. 2023

Climate

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A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century. Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 °C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 °C/century. This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases. Three main climatic drivers were considered, following the approaches adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s recent 6th Assessment Report (AR6): two natural forcings (solar and volcanic) and the composite “all anthropogenic forcings combined” time series recommended by IPCC AR6. The volcanic time series was that recommended by IPCC AR6. Two alternative solar forcing datasets were contrasted. One was the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) time series that was recommended by IPCC AR6. The other TSI time series was apparently overlooked by IPCC AR6. It was found that altering the temperature estimate and/or the choice of solar forcing dataset resulted in very different conclusions as to the primary drivers of the observed warming. Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric land component of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals that important challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming: (1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI; (3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warming since 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination. Suggestions for how these scientific challenges might be resolved are offered.

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A Discussion of Implausible Total Solar-Irradiance Variations Since 1700

Chatzistergos

2024

Sol Phys

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The Sun plays a role in influencing Earth’s climate, making it important to have accurate information about variations in the Sun’s radiative output. Models are used to recover total solar-irradiance (TSI) variations in the past when direct space-based measurements are not available. One of the most cryptic such TSI reconstructions is the one by (J. Geophys. Res. 98, 18, 1993, HS93). The rather vague description of the model methodology, the arbitrary selection of solar indices it employs, and the short overlap between the HS93 series and directly measured TSI values has hindered any evaluation of the performance of this model to this day. Here, we aim at rectifying this by updating the HS93 model with new input data. In this way we are also contributing in the discussion on the possible long-term changes in solar irradiance.We find that the analysis by HS93 included a number of erroneous processing steps that led to an artificial increasing trend towards the end of the reconstructed TSI series as well as shifting the peak of the TSI in the mid-twentieth century back in time by about 11 years. Furthermore, by using direct measurements of the TSI we determined that the free parameter of the model, the magnitude of variations (here defined as percentage variations of the difference between the maximum to minimum values), is optimal when it is minimised (being ≤0.05%). This is in stark contrast to the high magnitude of variations, of 0.25%, that was imposed by HS93. However, our result is consistent with more recent estimates, such as those from the Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction (SATIRE) model and Naval Research Laboratory TSI (NRLTSI), which were used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Overall, we find that the previously reported agreement of the HS93 TSI series to temperature on Earth was purely due to improper analysis and artefacts of the processing.

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Is there a link between the length of the solar cycle and Earth’s temperature?

Cited by 7 publications

References 78 publications

Recalibration of the Sunspot-Number: Status Report

Recalibration of the Sunspot-Number: Status Report

The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

A Discussion of Implausible Total Solar-Irradiance Variations Since 1700

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