Is There a Dominance of Social Protection Expenditure in the European Union?

Abstract

European welfare states, with their comprehensive and generous welfare model, create the largest part of general government expenditures in the European Union member countries. Given the rising trend of social expenditure and the long-run challenges coming from population ageing, this paper addresses the issue of social dominance, a situation in which, particularly when facing limited fiscal space, social expenditure could crowd-out other productive public expenditures, thus undermining growth potentials and possibly threatening fiscal sustainability. Using a panel regression analysis, the aim of the paper is to test whether social protection expenditure has crowded-out expenditures on other purposes in the European Union in the period 1995-2018. The results provide some evidence of crowding-out of infrastructure spending and education spending. Additionally, deficit financing and rising government debt have a significant adverse effect on spending on infrastructure, education and core public services, confirming that they are more prone to cutbacks in times of deteriorating public finance. These findings, along with the long-run fiscal pressure from the ‘greying population’ and the high political costs of welfare reforms suggest significant future risks of social dominance.

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