Is there a Chinese pattern of the second demographic transition?

Abstract

The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a useful theoretical framework for explaining the recent trend in many countries of very low fertility combined with alternative union and family types. Although past studies have observed the SDT in many Western societies, whether it is applicable to East Asia remains unclear. Capitalizing on data from the Chinese Census and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of key behavioral and ideational indicators of the SDT. We find that union formation in China has trended increasingly toward patterns commonly observed in the West, including delayed age of marriage and the common practice of premarital cohabitation. While having a lowest-low fertility rate, China has not experienced rising nonmarital childbirths, a key component of the SDT. However, we observe growing tolerance toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Marriages remain relatively stable in China, especially among couples with children. Taken together, our analysis suggests that typically coincident changes in patterns of family behavior associated with the SDT are not occurring simultaneously in China. Moreover, ideational changes are preceding behavioral changes, particularly in attitudes toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Our research suggests a different pattern of the SDT in China, which has been heavily influenced by Confucian culture.

Demographic and social anxieties: the second demographic transition in Asia

“…These include postponement of childbearing and later ages of marriage, for example. However, in common with other locations of low fertility in the region such as Hong Kong (Gietel- Basten & Verropoulou, 2018, 2021, the twin notions of marriage as a precursor to childbearing, and childbearing being a standard consequence of marriage are still found to be prevalent in the papers on China (Yu & Xie, 2022), Japan (Raymo, 2022) and Indonesia (Utomo et al, 2022). Divorces are certainly increasing across the region, but stability within marriage still appears to be the norm.…”

“…In Indonesia, "emerging ideational change embodying individualism, secularism, and post-materialism-originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in postindustrial Western Europe-can overlap with popular values promoting desecularization and the strengthening of familial institutions" (Utomo et al, 2022). In China, Confucian values are dramatically shaping (and reshaping) the process of the SDT (Yu & Xie, 2022). In Japan, Raymo's (2022) study identifies a "distinctive path to very low fertility in which universal forces of social and family change interact with strong normative expectations of two-parent families characterized by a clear gender division of labor".…”

Diverging destinies: changing trends of induced abortion in China

“…For instance, China has been exhibiting similar trends regarding marriage postponement, declines in fertility, and the rise of premarital cohabitation and sex. However, nonmarital births are very rare in China and marriage remains the main institution for procreation (Raymo et al, 2015;Yu & Xie, 2022). The coexistence of premarital sex and pregnancy and a low nonmarital birth rate in China during its SDT may cause shotgun marriages, i.e.…”

Fertility transition of Han and ethnic minorities in China: A tale of convergence and variation

“…Firstly, rapid changes in China's social, economic, and demographic landscapes are interconnected with transformations in cultural values and practices. For example, scholars are increasingly applying the second demographic transition (SDT) framework to understand China's low fertility regime (Gao, 2022;Yu, 2022;Yu andXie, 2019, 2022;Zhou, 2022). The core of the SDT framework argues that a shift toward individualism and personal autonomy leads to a delay in the timing of marriage and childbearing and a decrease in overall fertility rates (Lesthaeghe, 1995(Lesthaeghe, , 2014Surkyn and Lesthaeghe, 2004).…”