Is there a 1970s Syndrome? Analyzing Structural Breaks in the Metabolism of Industrial Economies

Wiedenhofer, Dominik; Rovenskaya, Elena; Haas, Willi; Krausmann, Fridolin; Pallua, Irene; Fischer‐Kowalski, Marina

doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2013.08.022

Cited by 35 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…We define urban DMC (or the intensive version per capita) based on EUROSTAT [5] as the annual quantity of raw materials extracted from a (metropolitan) territory (domestic extraction), plus all physical imports minus all physical exports. We interpret this to exclude the emissions to air, water and municipal solid waste flows of figure 1 consistent with other DMC analyses of major regions [14,34].…”

Section: Urban Materials Flow Accounts (Mfa)supporting

confidence: 85%

“…Another assumption implicit in the mathematics is that all regions will approach some non-increasing saturation DMC/capita value by 2050. This assumed saturating trend is supported by historical observations for developed regions [34,70,76] noting that Europe has had a stable, long-term average DMC/capita of between 12-13 tons/person/year for at least 40 years. There is also empirical evidence of saturation of per capita stocks of key urban materials such as steel [78] and in durable goods [20].…”

Section: Equationsupporting

confidence: 59%

“…where t is time in yearly intervals, and k is a parameter that describes the speed of transition. The underlying assumption is that regions experience long-term transitions in their material metabolic rate through the compound and complex diffusion of new infrastructure, technology, systems and processes [34]. The projected urban populations in Africa and Asia suggest a substantial future transition that is not represented by current urban statistics.…”

Section: Equationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The saturation of apparent material requirements with city size and income suggest that ultimately urban DMC/capita reaches some equilibrium level related to a complex interplay between urban growth, material efficiency and the larger importance of maintenance of material-intensive in-use stocks with a larger city size. Modelled results in the following analysis assume that per capita material consumption in durable and non-durable goods, fuel use, civic and private infrastructure, will increase with development to a point [34,36]. Evidence of saturation in regional DMC is found in the collected national data for European countries [70], which indicates the mathematical characteristics of the logistic curve described in section 3.4, are a reasonable choice.…”

Section: Transition Theoretic Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Baynes

Musango

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple 'business-as-usual' scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ∼73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ∼90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66-111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5-27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8-17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ∼12 to ∼14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.

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Section: Urban Materials Flow Accounts (Mfa)supporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Equationsupporting

confidence: 59%

Section: Equationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Transition Theoretic Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Baynes

Musango

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Encapsulation is a process of covering the core material with a suitable coating or shell material. Organic wax is often used as the phase change materials (PCM), and has attracted close attention since the energy crisis in 1970s . Many researches have been done on wax encapsulation .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preparation of nano‐encapsulated polyethylene wax particles for color toner by in situ emulsion polymerization

Zang

Han

et al. 2016

J of Applied Polymer Sci

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Polystyrene‐acrylate resin coated polyethylene (PE) wax composite particles used for color toner were prepared by in situ emulsion polymerization. The laser particle analyzer and transmission electron microscope (TEM) were applied to show the size and morphology of composite particles, and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was used to characterize the thermal properties of the nanoparticles. With the increase of emulsifier triton x‐100 (TX‐100), the size of composite particles decreased at first and then increased and the shell thickness increased gradually. When the mass ratio of TX‐100 to monomers was 1:10, the core–shell structure of the latex particles was the clearest. The homopolymer of styrene (St) and copolymer of styrene‐butyl acrylate (St‐BA) showed few differences on the size of the composite particles, but a significant difference on the thermal performance. The FTIR spectra and dissolution experiments of PE wax/P(St‐BA) composite particles provided supporting evidence for encapsulation. With the increasing percentage of polyethylene wax, the particles size got larger and emulsion shelf stability became worse. The size and the shelf stability got optimized when the reaction temperature was 80 °C. The average size of the particles initiated by 2,2‐azobisisobutyronitrile (AIBN) was smaller and the size distribution was narrower than those of initiated by potassium persulfate (KPS). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 2017, 134, 44399.

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Global Metabolism

González de Molina,

Toledo

2023

Environmental History

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Is there a 1970s Syndrome? Analyzing Structural Breaks in the Metabolism of Industrial Economies

Cited by 35 publications

References 26 publications

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Preparation of nano‐encapsulated polyethylene wax particles for color toner by in situ emulsion polymerization

Global Metabolism

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