Is the lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) likely to shortly become extinct in Europe?—Insights based on ecological niche modelling

Abstract

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be reintroduced in the remaining suitable areas.

How to Protect Natural Habitats of Rare Terrestrial Orchids Effectively: A Comparative Case Study of Cypripedium calceolus in Different Geographical Regions of Europe

“…The degree of effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network was explored using the published results of Kolanowska and Jakubska-Busse [ 15 ] regarding the current and future potential distribution of Cypripedium calceolus . Specifically, in their study Kolanowska and Jakubska-Busse [ 15 ] used maximum entropy techniques [ 31 , 32 , 33 ] to predict the potential distribution of this orchid.…”

“…The degree of effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network was explored using the published results of Kolanowska and Jakubska-Busse [ 15 ] regarding the current and future potential distribution of Cypripedium calceolus . Specifically, in their study Kolanowska and Jakubska-Busse [ 15 ] used maximum entropy techniques [ 31 , 32 , 33 ] to predict the potential distribution of this orchid. They used 12 bioclimatic variables (bio1: annual mean temperature; bio2: mean diurnal range; bio3: isothermality; bio4: temperature seasonality; bio5: max temperature of warmest month; bio8: mean temperature of wettest quarter; bio12: annual precipitation; bio13: precipitation of wettest month; bio14: precipitation of driest month; bio15: precipitation seasonality; bio18: precipitation of warmest quarter; bio19: precipitation of coldest quarter) at a spatial resolution of 2.5 min (approximately 22 km), and their predictions were based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the year 2070, using four available representative concentration pathways (RCPs: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5).…”

“…Due to their coarse spatial scale, direct use of the predicted potential distributions of Cypripedium calceolus [ 15 ] would not allow an accurate estimation of the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network in conserving C. calceolus under current and future climatic conditions. To overcome this problem, we increased the spatial resolution by resampling the initial raster layers of the predictions to 30 s resolution (approximately 1 km 2 ).…”

“…This is largely due to external factors causing disturbances of habitat conditions [ 13 ]. Progressive habitat loss, ending of traditional forest management (e.g., coppicing, small clearings), illegal digging-up for gardens, and improperly carried-out in situ conservation measures have reduced both the number of populations and the population sizes in Poland [ 14 , 15 ], as well as in other European countries [ 8 ].…”

“…Specifically, the recently recorded increase in summer temperatures, drought, large-scale fires, and lack of snow in winter tend to cause declines in the distribution ranges of several plant species, or to force them to migrate towards northern latitudes and higher altitudes [ 16 , 17 ]. Kolanowska and Jakubska-Busse [ 15 ], in their study of the effects of climate change on C. calceolus found that its range will decrease by ca. 30–63% by 2070.…”