Is the January Thaw a Statistical Phantom?

Godfrey, Christopher M.; Wilks, Daniel S.; Schultz, David M.

doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0053:itjtas>2.3.co;2

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…The cause of this behaviour is unclear. Godfrey et al (2002) examined the singularity of the observed warm temperature deviations from the annual cycle for a few days during January in the United States. They concluded that the spike was superficial, which they explain as a product of time and spatial dependence as well as chance weather occurrences.…”

Section: Data a Temperature Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intraseasonal Canadian Winter Temperature Responses to Interannual and Interdecadal Pacific SST Modulations

Shabbar

2012

Atmosphere-Ocean

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The influence of the modal structures of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the wintertime intraseasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Canada has been analyzed for the 1900-2008 period. Results demonstrate that intraseasonal temperature variability (longer than 11 days) dominates with a high degree of persistence in western Canada, whereas synoptic-scale variability (shorter than 11 days) prevails in eastern Canada. The PDO has been found to exert a significant modulating effect on ENSO-related intraseasonal temperature impacts in western Canada. In eastern Canada, temperature anomalies are generally weaker, often with ENSO and the PDO producing opposite effects. Spectral analysis shows reddening of the temperature spectra with significant peaks near the 20-day period in western Canada. In contrast, the power of the spectra is weaker with significant peaks occurring near the 13-day period in eastern Canada.Analyses of extremes demonstrate that ENSO and the PDO are also important drivers of change in Canadian temperature extremes with distinct regional responses. Significant differences in the frequency of occurrence of extreme intraseasonal temperatures above the 95th and below the 5th percentile for the base years exist between the in-phase and out-of-phase combinations of ENSO and the PDO across Canada. In general, the in-phase extreme temperature response is stronger and well organized compared with the out-of-phase response. Application of the generalized extreme value analysis shows that the positive (negative) in-phase combination of ENSO and the PDO enhances the positive (negative) shift in the winter absolute minimum temperatures in western Canada. Also, there are fewer cold days, cold nights and cold waves during the positive in-phase combinations of ENSO and the PDO and conversely more warm nights, warm days and heat waves in western Canada. Opposite responses are evident during the negative in-phase combinations of ENSO and the PDO. To the extent that these modes of climate variability can be reliably predicted, our results for extreme temperatures appear strong enough to be useful in extended regional prediction.

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Section: Data a Temperature Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intraseasonal Canadian Winter Temperature Responses to Interannual and Interdecadal Pacific SST Modulations

Shabbar

2012

Atmosphere-Ocean

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“…Godfrey et al . 30 suggested that meteorological patterns occurring frequently on or near a specific calendar date are more likely to be statistical phantoms than genuine climatic phenomena.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Holiday Effect on Air Temperatures

Jiang

Wang

2018

Sci Rep

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Anthropogenic emissions are generally lower during holidays than they are on workdays, this pattern is expected to result in temperature variations. Variations in the daily maximum (Tmax), mean (Tmean) and minimum (Tmin) air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) during the Chinese New Year holiday are evaluated with two methods using daily meteorological observations collected at 2200 stations in China from 1961 to 2015. These two methods yield nearly equivalent results that reflect strong variations in the defined holiday effects. During the period from 1961 to 1980, Tmean, Tmax, Tmin and the DTR all exhibit cooling holiday effects, this effect as measured by the DTR disappears during the period from 1981 to 2000. However, during the period from 2001 to 2015 warming holiday effects are observed for Tmax and the DTR. The evaluation shows that the holiday effect is neither unique nor statistically significant. These results indicate that the holiday effect is primarily caused by natural atmospheric oscillations, because ΔT oscillates noticeably with periods of approximately 7.1 days, 8.5 days and 16.2 days, and these oscillations can account for approximately 75.6% of the variance in ΔT. The oscillation identified here is consistent with the fundamental theory of Rossby wave in the atmosphere.

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“…Despite the lack of documentation for Montana, singularities have long been formally recognized in meteorology (e.g., Talman 1919;Brier 1954;Newman 1965;Hayden 1976;Godfrey et al 2002). Glickman (2000) defines a singularity as "a characteristic meteorological condition that tends to occur on or near a specific date more frequently than chance would indicate."…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Glickman (2000) defines a singularity as "a characteristic meteorological condition that tends to occur on or near a specific date more frequently than chance would indicate." The most analyzed singularity is the "January thaw," a multiday event in the northeastern United States that occurs around the 20-24 January (Lanzante and Harnack 1982;Guttman 1991;Godfrey et al 2002). The depth of research on this topic is impressive, with Godfrey et al's (2002, p. 54) p. 61) note that humans seek to find "order in nature," regardless of whether a particular pattern truly exists.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%