Is the governance of the Thau coastal lagoon ready to face climate change impacts?

Jeunesse, Isabelle La; Cirelli, Claudia; Sellami, Haykel; Aubin, David; Deidda, Roberto; Baghdadi, Nicolas

doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.05.014

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 37 publications

(39 reference statements)

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“…A depth gradient is observed from the south-west mean depth: 3.3 m) to the north-east (mean depth: 5.2 m) of the lagoon (Souchu et al, 2001). The Thau watershed covers 280 km² and is drained by tributaries with intermittent flows and two permanent rivers (La Jeunesse et al, 2015). Approximately half the watershed's permanent population (103,500 inh.…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Fifty years of ecological changes: Regime shifts and drivers in a coastal Mediterranean lagoon during oligotrophication

Derolez

Malet

Fiandrino

et al. 2020

Science of The Total Environment

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Thau lagoon is a large Mediterranean coastal lagoons and it supports traditional shellfish farming activities. It has been subject to eutrophication leading to major anoxic events associated with massive mortalities of shellfish stocks. Since the 1970s, improvements have been made to wastewater treatment systems, which have gradually led to oligotrophication of the lagoon. The aim of our study was to determine how the decrease in nutrient inputs resulted in major ecological changes in Thau lagoon, by analysing five decades of time-series of observations on pelagic and benthic autotrophic communities. We were able to identify two periods during the oligotrophication process. Period 1 was considered a eutrophic period, characterised by the shift from seagrass dominance to dominance of red macroalgae. Period 2 (1993-2018), characterised by improved eutrophication status, was further divided into three: a transition phase (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003) during which the water column continued to recover but the benthic community lagged behind in recovery and in partial resilience; a regime shift (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006), after which the water column became oligotrophic and seagrass began to recover (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018). Considering anoxia crises as indicators of ecosystem resilience and resistance, we used a generalised linear model to analyse meteorological and environmental data with the aim of identifying the triggers of summer anoxia over the study period. Among the meteorological variables studied, air temperature had the strongest positive effect, followed by the period and wind intensity (both negative effects) and by rainfall in July (positive effect). The risk of triggering anoxia was lower in period 2, evidence for the increasing resistance of the ecosystem to climatic stress throughout the oligotrophication process. At the ecosystem scale and in the long term perspective, the ecological gains related to oligotrophication are especially important in the context of climate change, with more frequent and severe heat waves predicted.Please note that this is an author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available on the publisher Web site.

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Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Fifty years of ecological changes: Regime shifts and drivers in a coastal Mediterranean lagoon during oligotrophication

Derolez

Malet

Fiandrino

et al. 2020

Science of The Total Environment

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“…Where the lagoon is being used as a nature reserve, for example (Mitchell et al, 2008), it may well be that any local sea level rise simply adds to the availability of sediment, which then gives rise to the establishment of new salt marsh areas, of benefit to a range of species. On the other hand, it is clear that issues of climate change can only be addressed provided that consistent and tested governance strategies are applied in consultation with stakeholders (La Jeunesse et al, 2015). Several authors have made some mention of the importance of using reliable and tested numerical models to predict likely outcomes in years to come.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of flushing and other characteristics of coastal lagoons using data from Ghana

Mitchell¹,

Couceiro²,

Boateng³

2017

Ocean & Coastal Management

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The challenges associated with managing systems of shallow coastal lagoons along a rapidly evolving coastline are illustrated in a case study of small lagoon systems in Ghana where these important structures are relied on by a range of different stakeholders for a variety of different purposes including fishing, tourism and salt production. Results of some water quality measurements are presented, showing that these lagoons have poor ecological status where they experience either a lack of flushing by the tide, or large amounts of anthropogenic inputs, or both. A vulnerability assessment is applied to the lagoons in question and this reveals a varying degree of threat from climate change to the operation and use of the lagoons. Our understanding of these systems suggests that a set of 1D hydrodynamic models, underpinned by an understanding of the local coastal sediment transport in each case, is appropriate, and could then be used to inform stakeholders and management in decision making. Integrated, broad-ranging management strategies must adapt to the realities of climate change in order to allow the sustainable use of these lagoons in providing economic benefits, ecosystem services, and elements of coastline protection for the benefit of the local and regional population and its economy.

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“…Informed societal adjustment to potential climatic changes requires in depth understanding of Earth's atmospheric response to various natural and man‐made forcings, including greenhouse gas emission scenarios associated with different rates of economic and population growth [see e.g., IPCC, ; Vrac et al ., ; Fowler et al ., ; Wetterhall et al ., ; Johnson and Sharma , ; Raje and Mujumdar , ; Palatella et al ., ; Annan et al ., ; Hasson et al ., , among others]. For the latter purpose, one needs accurate estimates of hydrological variables at a regional level and fine temporal scales (e.g., daily), suitable to run hydrologic models, and conduct impact studies [see e.g., Wilby and Harris , ; Perkins et al ., ; Kjellström et al ., ; Wilby , ; Evans and McCabe , ; Stoll et al ., ; Teutschbein et al ., ; Sulis et al ., ; Deidda et al ., ; Langousis and Kaleris , ; Camici et al ., ; Piras et al ., ; La Jeunesse et al ., ; Dentoni et al ., ; Majone et al ., ; Maurer et al ., ; Herrmann et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

A parametric approach for simultaneous bias correction and high‐resolution downscaling of climate model rainfall

Mamalakis

Langousis

Deidda

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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Distribution mapping has been identified as the most efficient approach to bias‐correct climate model rainfall, while reproducing its statistics at spatial and temporal resolutions suitable to run hydrologic models. Yet its implementation based on empirical distributions derived from control samples (referred to as nonparametric distribution mapping) makes the method's performance sensitive to sample length variations, the presence of outliers, the spatial resolution of climate model results, and may lead to biases, especially in extreme rainfall estimation. To address these shortcomings, we propose a methodology for simultaneous bias correction and high‐resolution downscaling of climate model rainfall products that uses: (a) a two‐component theoretical distribution model (i.e., a generalized Pareto (GP) model for rainfall intensities above a specified threshold u*, and an exponential model for lower rainrates), and (b) proper interpolation of the corresponding distribution parameters on a user‐defined high‐resolution grid, using kriging for uncertain data. We assess the performance of the suggested parametric approach relative to the nonparametric one, using daily raingauge measurements from a dense network in the island of Sardinia (Italy), and rainfall data from four GCM/RCM model chains of the ENSEMBLES project. The obtained results shed light on the competitive advantages of the parametric approach, which is proved more accurate and considerably less sensitive to the characteristics of the calibration period, independent of the GCM/RCM combination used. This is especially the case for extreme rainfall estimation, where the GP assumption allows for more accurate and robust estimates, also beyond the range of the available data.

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Is the governance of the Thau coastal lagoon ready to face climate change impacts?

Cited by 15 publications

References 37 publications

Fifty years of ecological changes: Regime shifts and drivers in a coastal Mediterranean lagoon during oligotrophication

Fifty years of ecological changes: Regime shifts and drivers in a coastal Mediterranean lagoon during oligotrophication

Influence of flushing and other characteristics of coastal lagoons using data from Ghana

A parametric approach for simultaneous bias correction and high‐resolution downscaling of climate model rainfall

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