Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective

Velickovski, Igor; Stojkov, Aleksandar

doi:10.1007/s10663-014-9247-1

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 27 publications

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“…Countries such as Luxembourg, Estonia and Sweden complied with the SGP throughout the studied period while France complied in just 4 years (out of 12). Since member states react differently to the same symmetrical shocks (Bak and Maciejewski, 2017; Frenkel and Nickel, 2002; Velickovski and Stojkov, 2014), they also react differently to a single and general fiscal rule. The European Commission has already implemented the idea of providing country‐specific recommendations for public finance plans as part of the European Semester.…”

Section: Data and Descriptive Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting stability and growth pact compliance using machine learning

Baret,

Barbier‐Gauchard,

Papadimitriou

2023

World Economy

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The 2011 reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (1996) strengthened the European Commission's monitoring of EU member states' public finance. Failure to comply with the 3% limit on public deficit triggers an audit. In this paper, we present a machine learning based forecasting model for compliance with the 3% limit. We use data from 2006 to 2018 (a turbulent period including the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis) for the 28 EU member states. After identifying 8 features as predictors among 138 variables, forecasting is performed using a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm. The proposed model achieved a forecasting accuracy of nearly 92% and outperformed the logit model used as a benchmark.

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Section: Data and Descriptive Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%