Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?

Productivity growth, transparency, and monetary policy

“…Hubert (2009) shows that in some developed countries, such as Sweden, UK, Canada, and Switzerland, the direct influence of central bank's output growth forecast on private agents' forecast is weak or insignificant. However, he, as well as Fujiwara (2005), shows that, in the case of Japan, the influence is significant. As for the latter situation, Muto (2011) theoretically investigates what kind of monetary policy actions are desirable when private agents are learning from the central bank's forecast.…”

What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile

“…Using observations from Japan, Fujiwara (2005) shows that professional forecasters are influenced by the Bank of Japan's inflation forecasts, but not vice versa. The analysis focuses on the dispersion of the forecasts, and suggests in addition that the CB's forecasts reduce the professional forecasters' uncertainty about the future.…”

“…The present study differs from these three related studies in several dimensions. The two most important are, firstly, that the focus is on the update of the PFs' expectations rather on than the dispersion among forecasters, as with Ehrmann et al (2012) and Fujiwara (2005), or the actual forecast, as with Hubert (2011). This permits us to pay more direct attention to the influence that CB forecasts have on private point forecasts.…”

Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals

“…With the development of inflation‐targeting policies, central bank (CB) forecasts have become a key feature of CB communication. However, only Fujiwara (), Ehrmann, Eijffinger, and Fratzscher (), and Hubert () assess whether CB forecasts affect private inflation forecasts, but these analyses focus on the effect on the dispersion of private forecasts…”