Is the 2004-2012 reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation significant?

Roberts, C. D.; Jackson, Laura; McNeall, Doug

doi:10.1002/2014gl059473

Cited by 74 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…Warming of the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre is qualitatively consistent with previous studies that have linked such changes with a reduction in densities and a decline of the AMOC (e.g. Robson et al 2014;Roberts et al 2014). …”

Section: Spatial Patterns Of Ohc Changesupporting

confidence: 90%

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

et al. 2015

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regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period [1993][1994][1995][1996][1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009]. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997-2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans Abstract Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0-300 m layer show large This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Ocean estimation from an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses, consisting of papers from the Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparsion Project (ORAIP), coordinated by CLIVAR-GSOP and GODAE OceanView. The special issue also contains specific studies using single reanalysis systems. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

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Section: Spatial Patterns Of Ohc Changesupporting

confidence: 90%

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

et al. 2015

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“…Although the oceans have warmed since the middle of the twentieth century (Levitus et al, 2005), the warming is non-homogeneously distributed across space and time. The Atlantic has exhibited significant multidecadal variability in sea temperature due to changes in circulation patterns (Robson et al, 2012;Roberts et al, 2014). Palmer and Haines (2009) detected a significant warming for the North Atlantic Ocean.…”

Section: Discussion Past Trends and Niche Trackingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in Response to Ocean Warming

et al. 2016

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North-east Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution has shifted northward in the last three decades probably in response to global sea warming. Yet, uncertainties subsist regarding on the shift rate, causalities, and how this species will respond to future conditions. Using egg surveys, we explored the influence of temperature change on mackerel's spawning distribution (western and southern spawning components of the stock) between 1992 and 2013, and projected how it may change under future climate change scenarios. We developed three generalized additive models (GAMs): (i) a spatiotemporal model to reconstruct the spawning distribution for the north-east Atlantic stock over the period 1992-2013, to estimate the rate of shift; (ii) a thermal habitat model to assess if spawning mackerel have tracked their thermal spawning-niche; and (iii) a niche-based model to project future spawning distribution under two predicted climate change scenarios. Our findings showed that mackerel spawning activity has shifted northward at a rate of 15.9 ± 0.9 km/decade between 1992 and 2013. Similarly, using the thermal habitat model, we detected a northward shift of the thermal spawning-niche. This indicates that mackerel has spawned at higher latitudes to partially tracking their thermal spawning-niche, at a rate of 28.0 ± 9.0 km/ • C of sea warming. Under future scenarios (mid and end of the century), the extrapolation of the niche-based model to coupled hydroclimatic and biogeochemical models indicates that center of gravity of mackerel spawning distribution is expected to shift westward (32 to 117 km) and northward (0.5 to 328 km), but with high variability according to scenarios and time frames. The future of the overall egg production in the area is uncertain (change from −9.3 to 12%). With the aim to allow the fishing industry to anticipate the future distribution of mackerel shoals during the spawning period, future research should focus on reducing uncertainty in projections.

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“…Of course, it is possible that the decline may be part of a longer-term cycle such as the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) or Variability (AMV) (67), or simply decadal variability, rather than a response to climate change. This underlines the need for continuing observations of the AMOC in order to be able to distinguish between the different mechanisms that might be responsible for the observed changes (100).…”

Section: Multiannual Amoc Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 98%

Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises

Srokosz

Bryden

2015

Science

206

173

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On the success (or not) of climate models Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports huge amounts of heat from low to high latitudes and has a major influence on climate. Climate models have predicted that global warming will cause the AMOC to slow, but concrete evidence of such a slowdown has been scarce. Srokosz and Bryden review a decade of observations of the AMOC that reveal an unexpected amount of variability over time scales from seasonal to decadal, as well as a general weakening over this time. Science , this issue 10.1126/science.1255575

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Is the 2004-2012 reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation significant?

Cited by 74 publications

References 26 publications

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in Response to Ocean Warming

Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises

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