Is Legal Pot Crippling Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations? The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on US Crime

Abstract

We examine the eect of medical marijuana laws (MML) on crime treating the introduction of MML as a quasi-experiment and using three dierent data sources. First, using data from the Uniform Crime Reports, we nd that violent crimes such as homicides and robberies decrease in states that border Mexico after MML are introduced. Second, using Supplementary Homicide Reports' data we show that for homicides the decrease is the result of a drop in drug-law and juvenile-gang related homicides. Lastly, using STRIDE data, we show that the introduction of MML in Mexican border states decreases the amount of cocaine seized, while it increases the price of cocaine. Our results are consistent with the theory that decriminalization of small-scale production and distribution of marijuana harms Mexican drug tracking organizations, whose revenues are highly reliant on marijuana sales. The drop in drug-related crimes suggests that the introduction of MML in Mexican border states lead to a decrease in their activity in those states. Our results survive a large variety of robustness checks. Extrapolating from our results, this indicates that decriminalization of the production and distribution of drugs may lead to a drop in violence in markets where organized crime is pushed out by licit competition. * Michael Braun, the former chief of operations for the D.E.A., told me a story about the construction of a high-tech fence along a stretch of border in Arizona. "They erect this fence," he said, "only to go out there a few days later and discover that these guys have a catapult, and they're inging hundred-pound bales of marijuana over to the other side." He paused and looked at me for a second. "A catapult," he repeated. "We've got the best fence money can buy, and they counter us with a 2,500-year-old technology." New York Times, Keefe (2012)

Crime and the legalization of recreational marijuana

“…Yet, research on the recent wave of legalization of cannabis for medical use ("medical marijuana laws", MML henceforth) in the US yields mixed results on the association between illicit drug use and crime. Some researchers find no significant relationship between MML and crime (Keppler and Freisthler, 2012;Braakman and Jones, 2014;Morris et al, 2014;Freisthler et al, 2016;Shepard and Blackley, 2016), while others show that MML may reduce some kind of non-drug crimes (Ingino, 2015) because of reduced activity by drug-trafficking organizations (Gavrilova et al, 2014). Using data from the UK, Adda et al (2014) argue that the decriminalizing marijuana allows the police to reallocate effort away from drug-related crimes and towards other types of offenses.…”

Crime and the Legalization of Recreational Marijuana

“…Some researchers find no significant relationship between MML and crime (Keppler and Freisthler, 2012;Braakman and Jones, 2014;Morris et al, 2014;Freisthler et al, 2016;Shepard and Blackley, 2016). Others show that MML are associated with fewer homicides (Ingino, 2016), less violent crime in general because of reduced activity by drug-trafficking organizations (Gavrilova et al, 2017), and less property crime (Huber III et al, 2016). Chu and Townsend (2017) show that although there are no significant effects at the national level, MML seem to reduce both violent and property crime within some states.…”

El crecimiento de la violencia en los mercados de drogas El caso de Uru guay (2012-2019)

“…Tampoco existen evidencias contundentes acerca del efecto que la regulación pueda tener en los grupos de crimen organizado cuya actividad delictiva excede el comercio de cannabis. La pérdida de ganancia de estas organizaciones por la venta del cannabis puede conducir a un debilitamiento de la organización o a una diversificación de las actividades criminales para compensar las pérdidas de ingresos por cannabis (Kilmer et al, 2010;Gavrilovay, Kamadaz y Zoutmanx, 2017).…”