Is Japan Succeeding in Suppressing COVID-19? Estimation of Infection Rate and the Size of the Population Potentially Exposed to SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

<jats:p>Background: The novel emerging virus SARS-CoV-2 has affected all human-kind during the first half of 2020. The aim of the study was to survey the actual circumstances from January until May. Methods: The data are collected and released systematically, by law, from the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID). Findings: Analysis of these data revealed that the infection spread in Japan from late March to early April 2020. The SARS-CoV-2 infection rate at its peak was estimated to be 10%. Thus, the size of the population who may have been exposed to the novel virus in Japan is estimated at 0.2 million, which is relatively small. The number of related deaths is likely to converge on 1,000 people. Interpretation: Applying the law of large numbers allows estimation of the infection rate as well as of the size of the affected population by statistical analysis. How to collect the data must be defined before the data analysis is suggested to be important to reflect the actual circumstances about COVID-19.</jats:p>