Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey

Cengiz, Doruk; Tekgüç, Hasan

doi:10.1177/0019793920978365

Cited by 25 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(62 reference statements)

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“…In this way, the refugees' labor force can be absorbed by this new capacity. This result is reinforced by Akgündüz et al (2018), andCengiz andTekguc (2018), who demonstrate that the inflow of refugees stimulates the formal economy by increasing the number of operating companies in the refugee host areas.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 89%

The role of refugees in the underground economy of the European Union

Mutaşcu

Hegerty

2022

IZA Journal of Development and Migration

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This paper explores the impact of refugees on the size of the underground economy in 28 European Union countries over the period from 1998 to 2017. It applies a nonlinear methodology by employing dynamic panel threshold estimations. The main findings uncover a nonlinear connection between refugees and the informal economy with an inverted V-shape and a different magnitude of effects depending on the share of the refugee population. The underground economy is stimulated at a low level of refugee inflows (where immigrants make up <0.572% of the total population). Large inflows compress the underground economy, which increases competition in the labor market based on lower labor costs. Economic growth and international trade play a crucial role in reducing the size of the informal economy. Equally importantly, coherent unemployment policy and adequate regulation of illegal immigrants support this process.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 89%

The role of refugees in the underground economy of the European Union

Mutaşcu

Hegerty

2022

IZA Journal of Development and Migration

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“…Syrian migration can also boost regional demand, capital supply in Turkey (Cengiz and Tekgüç, 2018). Given a large influx of Syrian refugees, Turkish economy is experiencing an excess demand on goods market which immediately increases the labor demand.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Çakıcı (2017) finds a similar result suggesting that Syrian refugees increase the level of unemployment, especially in the informal sectors of Turkey. Cengiz and Tekgüç (2018) study the effect of migration on local economies between 2012 and 2015. They obtain data on Syrian guests from the Ministry of İnterior Directory General of Migration Management database, data on new firm establishments published by The Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey employment data from Household Labor Force Surveys, the official statistical institute of Turkey (TURKSTAT).…”

Section: Related Literature and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Syrian Migration on Unemployment: Evidence from Turkey

Serttaş

Uluöz

2021

Adam Akademi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

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This study examines the labor market effects of the influx of the Syrian refugees in Turkey. Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration tests, followed by the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds tests reveal that the Turkish unemployment and Syrian refugee series are co-integrated; pointing out to a long-run relationship. Shortrun and long-run dynamics have been analyzed from the fitted ARDL model and the error-correction parameter is used to examine the speed of convergence. Dynamic OLS (DOLS), fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) estimations are used to make inferences about the co-integration parameters. Empirical results show that there is a significant and negative relationship between the level of unemployment in Turkey and the number of Syrian refugees in the long-run, indicating that the influx of Syrian refugees has had a reducing effect on unemployment numbers in Turkey. Our results suggest that the Syrian refugees have acted as a complementary labor force to the existing Turkish labor force.

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“…This method combines the synthetic control method with IFE models and is less sensitive to small sample size than the traditional synthetic control method. It is being used by a rapidly growing literature using panel data models with U.S. county-level treatment (Cook, 2021;Cengiz and Tekgüç, 2018;Nguyen, 2020), or with treatment measured in similar smaller geographic areas in other countries (Skorobogatov, 2021;Mäkelä, 2017). As the GSC eliminates confounding factors that violate the identifying parallel trends assumption in event study designs, particularly for unemployment rate in our case, our use of the GSC provides causally interpretable results.…”

Section: Empirical Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of recreational cannabis access on labor markets: evidence from Colorado

Chakraborty

Doremus

Stith

2021

IZA Journal of Labor Economics

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Recreational cannabis markets possibly increase labor demand through investments in facilities for growing, processing, and retail sales of cannabis, as well as through other industries such as manufacturing, leisure, and hospitality. However, this increase in labor demand may vary substantially across counties within a state as most states with legal recreational cannabis allow individual counties to ban commercial cannabis sales. Meanwhile, labor supply may change through positive and negative effects from cannabis use. Using county-level Colorado data from 2011 to 2018 and exploiting variation across counties in the existence and timing of the start of dispensary sales, we test for changes in the unemployment rate, employment, and wages, overall and by industry subsector. Consistent with an increase in labor demand, we estimate that the sale of recreational cannabis through dispensaries is associated with a 0.7 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate with no effect on the size of the labor force. We also find a 4.5% increase in the number of employees, with the strongest effects found in manufacturing. We find no effect on wages. Given the lack of a reduction in labor force participation or wages, negative effects on labor supply are likely limited, in line with the existing literature. The decrease in unemployment, coupled with an increase in the number of employees, indicates that labor demand effects likely dominate effects on labor supply. Our results suggest that policymakers considering recreational access to cannabis should anticipate a possible increase in employment.

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Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey

Cited by 25 publications

References 42 publications

The role of refugees in the underground economy of the European Union

The role of refugees in the underground economy of the European Union

The Impact of Syrian Migration on Unemployment: Evidence from Turkey

The effects of recreational cannabis access on labor markets: evidence from Colorado

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