Is Green Recovery Enough? Analysing the Impacts of Post-COVID-19 Economic Packages

Abstract

Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societal responses to climate urgency and that it should be significantly upscaled and prolonged to ensure compatibility with the Paris Agreement goals.

Changes in the Innovation- and Marketing-Habits of Family SMEs in the Foodstuffs Industry, Caused by the Coronavirus Pandemic in Hungary

“…Those investing are offered opportunities for increasing competitiveness and revenue, due to their dual nature in aiming to complete environmental and economic goals at the same time [42]. Their research is further supported by Rochedo et al, who went even further and questioned if green initiatives are even enough beyond the coronavirus pandemic; however, they explicitly stated the advantageous nature of such innovation [7]. Fodor et al expand on the idea, and determine soft and hard skills related to green innovation in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, in order to strengthen competency-based support for green initiatives in the labor market through higher education [43].…”

“…Transport had to sustain the mobility of the population in increasingly high-pressure circumstances [5]. Public services such as electric energy supply had to deal with unexpected loads due to the quarantine measures [6], and due to the post-treatment economic incentives, emission management and clean technology development will have significant increases in pressure [7]. Considering the impacts of COVID-19 on the aforementioned and more, and looking at the employment structure in Hungary, it is reasonable to say that the sector most impacted by the coronavirus pandemic is the sector of small and medium enterprises.…”

Paris Agreement requires substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond COVID-19 public stimulus packages

“…In fact, a recent study by Rochedo et al ( 2021 ) directly imposed low-carbon investments (or increased subsidy rates in associated capital costs) in two IAMs. The Rochedo study showed that stimulus packages of one trillion US$ for the period 2020–2025 (or 200 billion US$/year) will reduce near-term CO 2 emissions only to a limited extent compared to the level required for achieving the 1.5 °C target.…”

Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation

“…Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages but with sharp differences across countries. The work of Rochedo et al [5] provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, the authors conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societal responses to climate urgency and that it should be significantly upscaled and prolonged to ensure compatibility with the Paris Agreement goals.…”