Is Covid-19 a dread risk? The death toll of the pandemic year 2020 in long-term and transnational perspective

Gill, Bernhard; Kehler, Theresa; Schneider, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2022.103017

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…For example, the OECD considers most deaths under the age of 75 years—that is more than 25% of all deaths in OECD countries—as avoidable [ 29 ]. While these ideas may be plausible, they are moving targets in scientific debates rather than fixed points of reference across time, space, and culture, that could be used to determine, for example, the magnitude of a pandemic on a historical scale [ 30 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meaning and prediction of ‘excess mortality’: a comparison of Covid-19 and pre-Covid-19 mortality data in 31 Eurostat countries from 1965 to 2021

Gill,

Kehler,

Schneider

2024

Biology Methods and Protocols

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Determining "excess mortality" makes it possible to compare the burden of disasters between countries and over time, and thus also to evaluate the success of mitigation measures. However, the debate on Covid-19 has exposed that calculations of excess mortalities vary considerably depending on the method and its specification. Moreover, it is often unclear what exactly is meant by "excess mortality". We define excess mortality as the excess over the number of deaths that would have been expected counter-factually, ie without the catastrophic event in question. Based on this definition, we use a very parsimonious calculation method, namely the linear extrapolation of death figures from previous years to determine the excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic. But unlike most other literature on this topic, we first evaluated and optimised the specification of our method using a larger historical data set in order to identify and minimise estimation errors and biases. The result shows that excess mortality rates in the literature are often inflated. Moreover, they would have exhibited considerable excess mortalities in the period before Covid-19, if this value had already been of public interest at that time. Three conclusions can be drawn from this study and its findings: 1) All calculation methods for current figures should first be evaluated against past figures. 2) To avoid alarm fatigue, for mass media and policy communication thresholds should be introduced which would differentiate between "usual fluctuations" and "remarkable excess". 3) Statistical offices could provide more realistic estimates.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meaning and prediction of ‘excess mortality’: a comparison of Covid-19 and pre-Covid-19 mortality data in 31 Eurostat countries from 1965 to 2021

Gill,

Kehler,

Schneider

2024

Biology Methods and Protocols

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“…The copyright holder for this this version posted December 23, 2022. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.22.22283850 doi: medRxiv preprint event under consideration, but the author's ideas about what he or she considers avoidable and what not. While these ideas may be plausible, they are moving targets in scientific debates and not fixed points of reference across time, space, and culture, that could be used to determine, for example, the magnitude of a pandemic on a historical scale (Gill et al 2022). c) Finally, there is the possible and, in the public mind, perhaps also (mis-)understood meaning of an alert threshold, which is supposed to indicate an extraordinary event.…”

Section: ) Discussion and Conclusionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Calculation and meaning of “excess mortality”: A comparison of Covid- and pre-Covid mortality data in 31 Eurostat countries from 1965 to 2021

Gill¹,

Kehler²,

Schneider³

2022

Preprint

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Determining ″excess mortality″ makes it possible to compare the burden of disasters between countries and over time, and thus also to evaluate the success of mitigation measures. However, the debate on Covid-19 has exposed that calculations of excess mortalities vary considerably depending on the method and its specification. Moreover, it is often unclear what exactly is meant by ″excess mortality″. We define excess mortality as the excess over the number of deaths that would have been expected counter-factually, i.e. without the catastrophic event in question. That is, we include all normally occurring flu and heat waves, which are excluded by some authors with the consequence that they almost always record low expected values and correspondingly high excess mortality rates. Based on this definition, we use a very parsimonious calculation method that is easy to understand even for laypersons, namely the linear extrapolation of death figures from previous years to determine the excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic. But unlike other literature on this topic, we first evaluated and optimised the specification of our method using a larger historical data set in order to identify and minimise estimation errors and biases. The result shows that the excess mortality rates continuously published by international statistical offices — OECD and Eurostat — are often inflated and would have exhibited considerable excess mortalities in many countries and periods before Covid-19, if this value had already been of public interest at that time. It also reveals that mortality rates already fluctuated strongly in the past and that in a third of the countries studied, individual values from the past exceed the current fluctuations due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Three conclusions can be drawn from this study and its findings: 1) All calculation methods for current figures should first be evaluated against past figures. 2) The definition of excess mortality used should be made explicit. 3) Statistical offices should provide more realistic estimates.

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Epidemien im Licht der Umweltsoziologie

Gill,

Kehler,

Schneider

2024

Handbuch Umweltsoziologie

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Is Covid-19 a dread risk? The death toll of the pandemic year 2020 in long-term and transnational perspective

Cited by 5 publications

References 70 publications

Meaning and prediction of ‘excess mortality’: a comparison of Covid-19 and pre-Covid-19 mortality data in 31 Eurostat countries from 1965 to 2021

Meaning and prediction of ‘excess mortality’: a comparison of Covid-19 and pre-Covid-19 mortality data in 31 Eurostat countries from 1965 to 2021

Calculation and meaning of “excess mortality”: A comparison of Covid- and pre-Covid mortality data in 31 Eurostat countries from 1965 to 2021

Epidemien im Licht der Umweltsoziologie

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