Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020

Abstract

Background: Colombia detected its first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case on March 2, 2020. From March 22 to April 25, it implemented a national lockdown that, apparently, allowed the country to keep a low incidence and mortality rate up to mid-May. Forced by the economic losses, the government then opened many commercial activities, which was followed by an increase in cases and deaths. This paper presents a critical analysis of the Colombian surveillance data in order to identify strengths and pitfalls of the control measures. Methods: A descriptive analysis of PCR-confirmed cases between March and July 25 was performed. Data were described according to the level of measurement. Incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 were estimated by age, sex, and geographical area. Sampling rates for suspected cases were estimated by geographical area, and the potential for case underestimation was assessed using sampling differences. Results: By July 25, Colombia (population 50 372 424) had reported 240 745 cases and 8269 deaths (case fatality rate of 3.4%). A total of 1 370 271 samples had been analyzed (27 405 samples per million people), with a positivity rate of 17%. Sampling rates per million varied by region from 2664 to 158 681 per million, and consequently the incidence and mortality rates also varied. Due to geographical variations in surveillance capacity, Colombia may have overlooked up to 82% of the actual cases. Conclusion: Colombia has a lower case and mortality incidence compared to other South American countries. This may be an effect of the lockdown, but may also be attributed, to some extent, to geographical differences in surveillance capacity. Indigenous populations with little health infrastructure have been hit the hardest.

Public health matters: why is Latin America struggling in addressing the pandemic?

“…The results of the analysis showed that both timelier and more stringent implementation of the government policies to address the COVID-19 pandemic seem to be associated with higher mobility reductions, as other studies have shown [ 1 – 3 , 7 – 12 , 21 – 25 ]. Argentina, Colombia, and Peru that started adopting these public health policies earlier and maintained higher degrees of stringency in their implementation, throughout most of the 6 months analyzed, showed higher mobility reductions.…”

“…Several factors may have influenced this differential effectiveness of the closure and restriction policies in reducing mobility in each Latin American country. One factor seems to depend on the degree of compliance of their respective populations [ 8 , 9 , 11 , 12 ]. People living in Argentina, Chile, and Peru were more compliant with these policies than those in Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico, as the higher mobility reductions showed.…”

“…This recent literature focuses on experiences in East Asia, Europe, and the United States [ 3 , 4 ], including several studies based on previous epidemic experiences [ 5 – 7 ]. Latin America, despite becoming the hardest region struck by the pandemic, has been much less studied [ 8 – 12 ]. Further research is needed to better understand how our policymakers and institutions are dealing with this pandemic and its consequences [ 11 ].…”

Resilience effects in food consumption behaviour at the time of Covid-19: perspectives from Italy

“…Indeed, since the secondary data considered in the present study is associated with events that happened so few months ago, they represents the most updated source of information for making many early analyses and paving the way for more research as well as shedding light on the next adaptations needed at different supply chain levels. Several scholars, dealing with Covid-19 issue, have referred to such a source of information developing research on available data for outlining some early analyses ( Aldaco et al., 2020 ; Arellana et al., 2020 ; De la Hoz-Restrepo et al., 2020 ; Sun et al., 2020 ). Therefore, secondary data analysis, allows for a much greater breadth of data across sectors and time, providing a larger and higher-quality baseline of information for analysing the unique event the world is currently experiencing.…”

Performance of COVID-19 Surveillance System as Timely Containment Strategy in Western Oromia, Ethiopia.

“…In Hong Kong, containment strategies that include enhanced surveillance and testing, has led to control of cases and prevention of a community-wide outbreak during the 4.5 months after the rst case was reported [20]. Surveillance has also been used in Colombia to evaluate the effectiveness of COVID-19 control measures [21]. Surveillance data proofed to detect space time cluster [22].…”