Is carbon removal delaying emission reductions?

Abstract

Carbon dioxide removal is rapidly becoming a key focus in climate research and politics. This is raising concerns of "moral hazard" or "mitigation deterrence," that is, the risk that promises of and/or efforts to pursue carbon removal end up reducing or delaying near-term mitigation efforts. Some, however, contest this risk, arguing that it is overstated or lacking evidence. In this review, we explore the reasons behind the disagreement in the literature. We unpack the different ways in which moral hazard/mitigation deterrence (MH/MD) is conceptualized and examine how these conceptualizations inform assessments of MH/MD risks. We find that MH/MD is a commonly recognized feature of modeled mitigation pathways but that conclusions as to the realworld existence of MH/MD diverge on individualistic versus structural approaches to examining it. Individualistic approaches favor narrow conceptualizations of MH/MD, which tend to exclude the wider political-economic contexts in which carbon removal emerges. This exclusion limits the value and relevance of such approaches. We argue for a broader understanding of what counts as evidence of delaying practices and propose a research agenda that complements theoretical accounts of MH/MD with empirical studies of the political-economic structures that may drive mitigation deterrence dynamics.

Carbon removal demonstrations and problems of public perception

“…The concept of performativity has been widely deployed in debates about the roles that expectations about the future play in science and innovation (Brown & Michael, 2003; Konrad et al, 2016). Critical scholarship has highlighted ways in which the concept may help bring the politics of speculative carbon removal solutions into focus, as they are evaluated in the “world‐making” practices of global climate assessments (Beck & Mahony, 2018; Carton et al, 2023). Alongside the concept's value for critical analysis, the capacity to be reflexive about practices of world‐making is also integral to demonstrating carbon removal.…”

Deployment expectations of multi-gigaton scale of carbon dioxide removal could have adverse impacts on global climate system

“…Table 2 summarizes the impact of varying levels of CDR reliance on primary and nal energy demand, and abatement costs under the different scenarios. By attempting to remove large quantities of CO 2 from the atmosphere, the remaining carbon budget is extended 53 , delaying the necessary transition away from fossil fuels to achieve climate targets. The results indicate that high reliance on CDR presents a risk of perpetuating fossil fuel reliance and impeding transitions to sustainable energy systems.…”

Social Considerations and Best Practices for Engaging Publics on Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement

“…3. Interventions perceived as involving dispersal of materials are less desirable than those involving controlled storage (e.g., burial on land or beneath the seabed) (Cooley et al, 2023).…”