Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe

Abstract

Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development might turn positive at high levels of development. The robustness of the reversal continues to be debated. We add to this discussion from a novel angle by considering whether such a reversal could also occur at the sub-national level within highly developed countries. Our contributions are both theoretical and empirical. We first discuss important trends which might foster the emergence of a positive fertility–development relationship across regions of highly developed countries. These include shifts in family policies, changes in the spatial organisation of the economic sphere, and selective international and internal migration processes. In order to explore whether we observe tendencies towards a reversal, we investigate data covering 20 European countries subdivided in 256 regions between 1990 and 2012. We document a weakening of the negative relationship between fertility and economic development within many countries, and among some countries the emergence of a positive relationship. These findings do not seem to be driven by postponement effects alone. However, there is substantial variation in the fertility and the economic development levels at which such tendencies towards a reversal are observed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10680-018-9485-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Post-transitional regional fertility in Romania

“…In this respect, although Luci-Greulich and Thévenon (2014) conclude that birth postponement has a certain role in explaining such tendencies towards a reversal of fertility in the economic development process, other factors captured by GDP per capita contribute to fertility reincrease. In the same note, Fox, Klüsener, and Myrskylä (2015) point out that this causality hypothesis is not entirely supported, as the end of postponement and the economic outcome improvement can occur simultaneously. However, in line with the works of , Myrskylä, Goldstein, and Cheng (2013), and Schmertmann et al (2014), part of the fertility increase in highly developed countries is not attributed to this tempo effect but rather to a real fertility level increase.…”

“…In light of the positive association between fertility and the economic development level, Fox, Klüsener, and Myrskylä (2015) analyze the impact of income per capita upon the dynamics of fertility in a number of European countries and in their sub-national regions. For most of these countries, the results suggest a decline in the previously strong negative relationship between fertility and income per capita at regional level while, for others, a turnaround in the relationship between the two factors.…”

New opportunities for comparative male fertility research: Insights from a new data resource based on high-quality birth registers

“…If, for instance, postponement was more pronounced among females than among males, the mean age at childbirth would increase faster for females than for males. While fertility postponement among females has received considerable attention in the demographic literature (Kohler et al 2002;Sobotka 2004, Fox et al 2018), this has not been the case for males (Nordfalk et al 2015). A potential mechanism for gender differences in postponement could be increased educational hypergamy, as described above.…”

Spatial variation in fertility across Europe: Patterns and determinants

“…We use 1,134 comparable small‐scale spatial (NUTS 3) units across 21 European countries to study patterns of regional variation in TFRs and to improve our understanding of the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in shaping regional fertility. Although recent studies have investigated spatial fertility variation in Europe, they have either focused on one country (Klüsener, Neels, & Kreyenfeld, ; Kulu et al, ; Kulu, Boyle, & Andersson, ; Sobotka & Adigüzel, ; Vitali & Billari, ) or used relatively large spatial units in multicountry studies (Billari & Kohler, ; Fox, Klüsener, & Myrskylä, ; Klüsener, Perelli‐Harris, & Gassen, ; Kohler, Billari, & Ortega, ). These approaches hide cross‐national patterns and overlook the considerable amount of local variation in fertility.…”

“…Increases in gross domestic product (GDP) were historically related to declines in fertility, but the relationship between economic development and fertility is changing in modern Europe (Myrskylä, Kohler, & Billari, ). Recent work using aggregate level data suggests that the negative relationship between fertility and income has weakened at the national level and has become positive in some subnational areas (Fox et al, ). This suggests that richer regions may have higher fertility: possibly due to changes in family policies, economic interdependence, and migration processes across Europe.…”