Irish General Election 2020: two-and-a-half party system no more?

Abstract

Ireland's General Election in February 2020 broke new ground from the moment it was called: it was the first to take place on a Saturday since the elections that led to the creation of the First Dáil over 100 years before. As in 1918, 2020 saw a decline in public trust of conservative parties, the rise of a more populist and radical force calling itself Sinn Féin, and the sidelining of the Labour Party.Unlike the 1918 election, it failed to produce a definitive result in terms of Irish governance. While there were putative 'winners and losers', no party emerged as the 'obvious' choice for government. Instead, the electorate distributed seats almost evenly among three parties: Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil, and Fine Gael. Unusually for Ireland, no combination of any two would provide a parliamentary majority. Such is the fragmentation among the remaining seats that negotiating an agreement of three or more parties seems difficult.At time of writing, no government has been formed, though what initially promised to be protracted talks may be accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Whatever the eventual outcome, the disintegration of Ireland's traditional two-and-a-half party system has continued amidst a significant political realignment. KEYWORDS Irish politics; elections; party systems; electoral realignment BackgroundThe 2016 entry in the venerable How Ireland Voted series described that year's general election as 'the election that nobody won' (Gallagher & Marsh, 2016). The heavy losses sustained by the outgoing Fine Gael-Labour coalitionparticularly the decimation of the latter partymade it impossible for them to cobble together any means of prolonging some version of the administration. At the same time, there was no obvious challenger party elected from the opposition benches: while Fianna Fáil outperformed expectations somewhat in the election, it failed to overtake Fine Gael as the largest party (Barrett,

Political developments, 2020

“…On 14 January, with the prospect of losing a vote of no confidence, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, TD, requested that President Michael D. Higgins dissolve the thirtysecond Dáil. That same day Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage Eoghan Murphy, TD, signed a polling order for a general election to take place on Saturday 8 February, the first general election to take place on a Saturday since 1918 (see Field, 2020).…”

“…Indeed, in subsequent debates, Sinn Féin threatened legal action if Ms McDonald was not included. Secondly, Fine Gael senator and election candidate Catherine Noone drew criticism after a series of derogatory remarks regarding Varadkar's debate performance and character were recorded and reported (see Field, 2020).…”

“…The Social Democrats gained four seats while Solidarity-People Before Profit lost one seat. Peadar Tóibín, the former Sinn Féin TD, retained his seat for Aontú (see Field, 2020).…”

Predicting vote choice in the 2020 Irish general election

“…The titles of the accounts of this election outcome that have been published so far provide a useful summary of just how seismic it was: 'the end of an era' (Gallagher, Marsh, & Reidy, 2021); 'two-and-a-half party system no more' (Field, 2020); 'change gradually then all at once' (Little, 2021). This was an election that produced a number of stand-out results: the second lowest electoral turnout among post-war Irish elections; the second most volatile election in the history of the state; the worst ever electoral outcome by the established parties; and a further fractionalisation of the party system (at least as measured by the effective number of legislative parties).…”

Good times for a change? Ireland since the general election

“…According to some commentators, had the party run as many candidates as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, they would have gained at least eleven further seats. 1 A more ambitious electoral strategy on the part of Sinn Féin might well have altered the immediate future of Irish political life.…”